***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2019.-07.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 13.8 21.2 14.4 131.6 73.5 53.1 5.6 10.4 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 10.4 17.3 13.3 134.9 74.3 58.2 4.3 8.1 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.7 18.9 16.4 142.1 75.9 56.4 5.0 9.0 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.2 13.3 12.6 109.3 67.5 50.3 4.0 7.7 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.6 11.9 12.9 113.3 68.3 54.2 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.3 9.6 12.4 88.3 59.9 47.8 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 13.3 20.4 12.2 129.8 73.0 51.7 5.6 10.2 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 18.2 19.4 12.3 92.8 61.9 45.2 8.3 14.1 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.4 11.0 12.0 93.8 62.4 45.8 3.1 6.8 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 6.7 16.5 12.7 90.6 61.2 45.4 6.1 11.7 19.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.8 9.8 11.7 96.7 62.9 48.1 3.5 6.6 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.4 10.9 10.4 93.7 62.5 44.5 4.1 7.5 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 7.0 8.9 12.2 103.7 66.0 49.1 2.9 5.5 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.5 23.8 18.7 128.3 72.6 55.3 5.7 11.4 19.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 8.1 13.0 10.9 116.5 69.8 53.5 2.3 5.5 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.3 7.9 9.5 81.0 57.2 40.8 3.1 6.2 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.3 18.8 13.8 135.5 74.4 51.6 3.9 8.1 14.1 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.9 18.3 16.4 105.5 65.9 50.8 6.4 11.5 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 11.2 19.2 14.8 143.3 76.1 59.9 4.8 8.7 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.8 19.5 16.6 111.2 67.1 51.8 7.4 12.4 18.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.9 16.8 13.8 111.7 68.0 48.1 4.3 9.0 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.5 20.8 14.9 139.1 75.1 53.9 4.6 9.2 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.6 25.3 16.6 147.5 76.9 58.6 6.0 11.2 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.7 20.4 17.3 125.3 71.3 55.2 5.6 10.5 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.0 16.7 17.0 142.4 75.9 58.9 4.3 7.8 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.9 7.8 10.0 97.6 63.3 44.0 2.8 5.2 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 13.8 21.3 15.7 130.7 73.1 55.1 5.7 10.5 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.8 11.3 9.8 94.1 62.6 47.7 3.6 7.2 12.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.2 23.9 17.9 108.5 66.3 52.4 7.3 14.1 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 11.7 17.3 12.9 130.9 73.2 55.4 5.9 9.6 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------