***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2019.-14.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 2.9 8.6 6.4 68.1 53.6 34.0 3.2 7.4 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 3.8 10.8 7.5 85.3 60.1 38.3 3.9 7.8 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 3.4 11.3 7.1 73.5 55.3 35.8 4.1 9.0 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 3.8 10.5 5.6 59.7 50.2 29.4 4.8 10.5 19.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 4.3 13.2 6.9 74.8 56.6 33.4 5.2 10.5 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 3.5 8.9 6.4 60.1 48.7 30.8 4.4 9.1 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 3.0 8.3 6.7 77.4 57.6 36.5 2.9 6.1 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 9.2 20.2 7.3 65.3 51.6 32.3 11.2 19.3 29.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 3.2 10.9 7.7 74.5 56.3 34.4 3.7 8.3 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 5.4 14.8 8.1 68.3 53.2 33.9 6.2 13.0 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 3.1 9.1 5.4 65.2 52.6 29.8 3.8 8.3 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 76 24 0 100 4.9 12.4 5.5 62.5 50.6 28.5 6.6 12.1 19.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 3.1 7.9 5.4 62.0 51.2 29.6 4.1 7.6 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 5.6 17.0 11.2 86.5 59.9 39.2 6.3 12.2 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 2.1 5.7 4.4 59.5 50.6 28.8 2.5 5.6 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 79 21 0 100 3.9 8.7 4.4 53.8 46.9 24.8 5.5 9.6 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 3.4 8.7 7.0 81.8 58.8 36.8 3.9 6.8 10.6 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 5.9 14.4 11.1 76.8 56.1 40.8 6.2 11.8 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 4.7 13.0 7.8 86.6 60.4 38.1 5.0 9.3 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 6.2 12.5 10.4 71.2 51.8 39.0 6.8 11.9 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 4.3 12.2 7.2 73.0 55.9 34.2 5.0 10.1 17.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 5.3 16.5 8.1 88.0 60.4 39.1 5.8 11.5 19.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 4.0 11.2 7.8 81.2 58.2 36.3 4.5 8.6 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 5.1 14.2 10.3 83.8 59.0 40.6 5.5 10.6 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 3.7 9.7 6.6 64.7 52.6 33.6 4.1 8.7 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 3.2 7.0 4.6 63.6 51.8 29.6 4.0 6.7 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 4.4 11.1 6.8 66.0 52.8 34.5 4.8 10.1 18.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 2.1 6.0 4.8 56.6 48.4 26.6 2.9 6.3 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 8.0 18.4 11.6 76.8 54.9 40.8 9.0 15.8 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 3.8 11.7 6.9 77.6 57.2 36.3 4.2 8.9 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------