***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2019.-21.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 3.7 13.9 7.7 90.8 63.7 40.2 4.1 8.6 15.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.9 14.1 8.4 115.0 70.0 46.9 3.7 7.2 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.6 11.8 9.0 103.5 67.4 43.3 3.8 7.0 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 3.0 13.7 8.6 98.8 66.1 40.2 2.9 7.1 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 2.8 11.2 7.4 93.9 64.5 39.8 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 3.5 11.7 8.9 85.4 62.0 41.8 3.5 7.4 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.3 12.2 7.7 112.6 69.2 45.1 3.0 6.2 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 4.1 16.9 10.7 114.2 69.6 45.2 4.1 8.5 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 2.9 9.8 7.9 89.9 63.2 38.0 3.4 6.5 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 2.8 10.5 10.6 100.5 66.1 42.6 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 2.2 10.3 7.2 101.3 66.2 40.2 2.1 5.3 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 2.9 15.9 8.0 114.3 69.6 42.4 2.8 7.1 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 1.7 9.8 8.8 109.6 69.1 43.5 1.5 4.2 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.4 18.5 14.2 120.0 71.3 48.4 4.0 8.4 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 2.2 10.1 7.0 107.4 68.5 39.6 2.5 5.1 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 1.4 6.6 7.4 96.3 65.1 37.8 1.5 3.5 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.5 12.7 9.2 130.1 73.6 48.2 3.3 6.2 10.0 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 3.4 13.8 14.5 117.1 70.5 48.8 3.0 6.5 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.5 14.5 8.7 110.4 69.0 46.2 4.3 8.1 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 3.4 13.5 15.2 123.2 71.4 50.5 3.2 6.4 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 2.7 9.3 8.5 102.9 67.0 40.2 3.0 5.5 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 2.8 11.8 10.4 131.4 73.9 50.3 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 3.2 10.7 9.2 105.8 67.8 44.8 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 3.7 13.3 12.4 113.0 69.6 47.2 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 3.8 14.3 8.8 105.1 67.8 42.8 4.3 8.1 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 2.0 9.0 6.2 99.4 65.8 40.8 2.2 4.9 9.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 3.5 15.2 8.5 96.9 65.5 41.9 3.7 8.3 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 2.8 12.0 8.0 98.0 65.8 38.3 3.0 6.5 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 4.7 18.3 15.7 123.1 71.7 50.5 4.6 8.9 15.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 3.4 11.7 8.2 106.0 67.8 44.1 3.5 6.6 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------