***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.06.2019.-21.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 34.5 49.4 38.3 82.8 50.2 42.1 34.9 49.4 66.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 54.3 54.7 38.0 95.2 57.6 49.3 37.6 49.0 61.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 57.1 59.2 44.8 99.8 59.3 50.2 37.8 50.8 65.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 58.6 53.9 40.3 89.2 54.2 46.9 33.2 49.5 68.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 54.8 56.4 43.4 97.7 58.7 51.5 34.0 47.8 64.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 25.3 37.9 42.7 82.7 47.0 41.3 27.0 40.2 56.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 50.7 47.7 35.1 89.5 54.7 46.7 32.0 44.1 57.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 84.3 86.0 53.2 100.5 58.7 50.9 58.6 76.3 95.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 32.3 47.4 43.2 88.8 53.1 45.9 32.8 45.0 59.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 69.3 70.8 56.6 100.3 59.0 51.1 45.1 61.2 79.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 47.5 51.9 44.9 105.5 62.4 54.5 29.4 41.5 55.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 56.4 58.3 41.5 100.3 59.4 51.2 34.0 48.7 66.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 36.4 35.5 41.0 95.6 57.3 48.8 20.9 30.6 42.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 75.4 85.2 64.3 111.4 65.0 54.7 50.2 67.1 86.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 36.9 37.2 33.4 90.8 57.2 49.6 19.0 30.9 45.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 22.4 34.6 36.0 86.1 51.5 44.6 23.5 33.7 45.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 31.4 47.6 38.0 95.9 58.0 47.3 32.2 42.4 53.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 67.2 69.7 65.7 104.3 60.7 51.0 46.4 60.2 75.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 55.5 57.7 41.0 98.8 59.3 50.5 36.5 49.5 64.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 63.1 65.7 66.0 106.2 61.6 52.4 44.8 56.6 69.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 56.2 53.3 42.9 92.0 55.2 47.2 35.1 48.9 64.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 56.9 59.1 42.2 101.7 60.8 50.2 38.2 50.4 63.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 58.7 61.8 45.3 102.7 60.8 51.4 42.2 53.5 66.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 69.7 75.1 58.9 107.5 62.8 52.4 46.9 61.8 78.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 54.7 51.0 43.8 88.9 54.2 46.5 34.0 47.3 62.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 35.5 33.6 33.1 92.5 55.3 47.6 20.9 30.3 41.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 38.1 55.4 41.4 83.2 50.5 43.2 38.8 54.9 73.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 40.9 39.0 38.0 90.6 55.2 48.1 22.9 34.9 49.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 87.2 90.4 67.9 105.2 60.9 51.0 61.0 77.8 96.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 58.6 56.8 37.6 91.6 55.4 47.9 39.8 52.3 66.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------