***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2012.-01.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 16.1 18.4 1.4 76.4 69.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 15.8 16.1 18.1 1.1 72.0 65.8 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 17.8 18.5 18.7 1.6 79.8 73.5 15.7 16.7 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 12.1 13.2 16.4 1.0 70.7 66.5 10.7 11.8 12.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 46 54 100 14.1 14.4 16.5 1.1 71.2 67.1 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 13.2 13.5 14.6 1.3 74.1 70.9 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 15.2 16.1 18.1 1.0 71.3 65.2 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 8.9 9.3 14.7 1.5 77.9 73.8 6.7 7.7 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 15.5 15.8 17.1 1.2 74.0 69.3 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 15.5 15.8 15.4 1.3 75.4 71.2 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 15.2 15.6 16.2 1.2 74.4 70.1 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 13.4 13.9 15.5 1.5 77.5 73.4 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 14.6 15.0 15.3 1.3 75.2 71.5 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 15.6 15.9 16.3 0.6 62.4 59.5 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 15.9 16.5 17.6 0.8 68.7 64.7 14.9 15.7 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 15.5 15.9 15.9 1.2 73.8 69.9 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 15.7 16.1 17.3 0.6 63.4 58.8 14.5 15.4 16.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 44 56 100 14.1 14.2 14.1 1.0 69.7 66.1 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 15.7 16.1 18.3 1.3 75.1 68.9 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 10.1 10.5 12.4 1.5 76.7 73.1 8.3 9.1 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 15.3 15.6 18.1 1.2 73.6 68.7 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 14.7 14.9 17.3 0.5 60.0 56.9 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 15.4 16.0 18.3 1.4 77.3 71.3 13.4 14.4 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 15.0 15.8 16.3 0.9 68.4 64.5 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 14.6 15.4 17.0 1.0 69.7 64.8 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 14.4 14.6 14.7 1.2 73.0 69.5 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 14.6 15.5 17.4 1.0 70.0 64.3 13.3 14.3 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 13.7 14.3 16.9 1.0 69.4 65.7 12.7 13.4 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 12.8 13.1 13.6 1.2 73.3 69.4 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 16.1 16.6 18.5 1.3 75.9 69.4 14.2 15.1 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------