***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2012.-08.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 9999.0 19.5 21.2 3.3 96.5 90.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 6 94 100 17.0 19.7 21.8 3.7 97.5 91.5 14.4 15.3 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 19.1 22.1 21.5 3.7 98.0 92.7 16.5 17.4 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 14.6 16.8 18.9 2.6 93.7 87.7 11.7 12.8 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 10 90 100 15.7 17.8 19.0 3.0 95.6 89.8 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 14.3 16.1 16.9 2.8 95.2 89.6 12.4 13.1 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 6 94 100 17.1 19.4 21.5 3.5 96.4 90.0 14.7 15.6 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 8 92 100 9.9 12.5 17.3 3.3 97.3 91.8 7.4 8.4 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 16.7 19.0 19.5 3.2 96.7 91.1 14.5 15.3 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 16.5 18.7 17.9 3.1 97.0 91.5 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 16.4 18.5 18.7 3.2 96.9 91.5 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 6 94 100 14.1 16.1 18.2 3.3 97.3 92.4 12.3 13.0 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 7 93 100 15.8 17.5 17.2 2.8 95.5 90.5 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 11 89 100 17.1 18.9 19.1 2.9 95.6 89.1 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 17.8 19.5 19.8 2.7 94.4 88.3 15.7 16.5 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 16.9 18.8 18.1 2.9 95.8 90.6 14.8 15.6 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 6 94 100 17.5 19.4 21.0 3.2 95.7 88.5 15.2 16.1 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 8 92 100 14.9 17.1 17.0 3.1 97.2 91.4 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 16.7 19.3 21.9 3.8 98.2 92.5 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 10 90 100 10.9 13.0 15.4 3.3 97.2 91.0 8.9 9.6 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 16.7 19.1 20.5 3.2 96.7 90.7 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 16.3 18.1 20.7 3.0 95.2 87.9 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 16.0 18.3 21.5 3.8 98.3 93.0 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 16.9 19.1 19.1 3.1 97.0 91.1 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 11 89 100 16.7 18.5 19.3 2.8 94.8 88.3 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 15.3 16.7 17.1 2.6 93.6 88.4 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 10 90 100 17.0 19.4 20.2 3.0 95.3 88.9 14.1 15.2 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 12 88 100 15.6 17.2 19.2 2.6 93.9 87.9 13.6 14.4 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 14.1 17.0 16.4 3.1 97.3 91.2 11.5 12.5 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 5 95 100 17.2 19.9 22.0 3.8 97.9 92.3 14.8 15.7 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------