***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2012.-22.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 18.2 19.8 1.6 79.0 70.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 16.8 17.8 20.2 1.9 82.9 72.8 14.4 15.5 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 19.1 20.3 20.0 1.8 84.0 74.2 16.5 17.6 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 14.7 15.0 17.8 1.0 71.6 64.9 11.9 13.2 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 15.0 15.6 17.7 1.2 76.4 68.8 12.7 13.8 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 14.0 14.5 15.9 1.3 80.1 71.1 12.0 12.9 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 17.2 18.0 20.1 1.7 80.3 70.6 14.8 15.9 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 9.7 10.4 15.8 1.4 80.6 71.0 7.3 8.3 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 16.3 17.0 18.1 1.5 80.3 71.9 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 16.2 16.8 16.4 1.4 80.3 71.2 14.0 15.0 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 15.8 16.5 17.4 1.4 80.7 72.2 13.8 14.7 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 13.9 14.6 16.8 1.5 81.8 73.0 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 15.1 15.6 16.1 1.2 79.4 71.6 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 16.8 17.6 17.8 1.4 80.1 71.0 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 17.5 17.8 18.9 1.2 75.8 67.9 15.7 16.5 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 16.6 17.2 17.0 1.3 78.6 70.9 14.3 15.3 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 17.7 18.2 19.3 1.4 76.5 67.3 15.6 16.6 17.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 14.4 15.2 15.6 1.4 81.0 71.8 12.3 13.2 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 16.7 17.8 20.2 2.0 84.9 74.7 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 10.2 10.8 13.9 1.4 79.0 70.0 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 16.2 16.8 19.1 1.5 79.3 70.7 14.0 15.0 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 16.3 16.8 19.3 1.4 77.8 68.7 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 16.1 17.2 19.9 2.0 86.4 76.4 14.0 14.9 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 16.7 17.4 17.7 1.5 82.0 72.6 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 16.3 16.6 18.1 1.1 73.7 66.2 13.9 15.0 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 15.1 15.4 16.1 1.2 76.3 68.9 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 16.7 17.3 18.9 1.3 75.3 67.4 13.9 15.2 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 15.0 15.2 18.2 1.0 72.9 66.0 13.0 14.0 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 14.0 14.9 15.0 1.5 81.4 72.1 11.5 12.6 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 17.3 18.5 20.4 1.9 83.9 73.9 14.8 15.9 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------