***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2012.-22.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 9999.0 17.7 19.8 2.0 96.1 90.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 6 94 100 16.3 18.0 20.0 2.2 96.1 90.4 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 18.3 20.0 20.0 2.3 97.6 92.6 16.6 17.2 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 7 93 100 13.5 14.6 17.7 1.5 92.7 86.3 11.9 12.5 13.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 14.8 15.9 17.7 1.7 94.4 88.5 13.3 13.8 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 13.6 14.7 15.9 1.7 95.7 90.3 12.3 12.8 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 16.4 17.7 19.9 2.0 94.9 88.5 14.9 15.5 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 8.9 10.3 15.9 2.0 97.1 91.9 7.6 8.1 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 15.9 17.2 18.2 1.9 96.0 90.3 14.5 15.0 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 15.8 17.1 16.5 1.9 96.5 90.7 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 6 94 100 15.6 17.0 17.4 1.9 96.3 91.1 14.2 14.7 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 3 97 100 13.6 15.0 16.8 2.0 97.1 92.5 12.1 12.7 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 5 95 100 14.9 16.1 16.2 1.7 95.6 90.4 13.5 14.0 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 12 88 100 16.5 17.5 17.7 1.6 92.9 85.9 15.1 15.6 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 6 94 100 17.2 18.2 18.7 1.6 93.8 87.7 15.7 16.3 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 16.2 17.4 17.0 1.8 95.4 90.2 14.6 15.2 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 14 86 100 16.8 17.9 19.2 1.7 92.5 84.9 15.4 16.0 16.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 6 94 100 14.3 15.6 15.6 1.8 95.9 89.5 12.8 13.4 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 16.2 17.7 20.1 2.3 97.2 92.1 14.6 15.2 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 5 95 100 10.2 11.5 13.9 1.9 96.5 91.1 8.7 9.3 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 7 93 100 15.8 17.1 19.2 1.9 95.8 89.6 14.3 14.9 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 15.8 16.7 19.1 1.6 91.2 83.5 14.3 14.9 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 15.6 17.2 19.9 2.4 97.8 93.0 14.2 14.7 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 5 95 100 16.4 17.8 17.7 1.8 95.5 89.0 14.6 15.3 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 15.8 16.9 18.1 1.6 93.9 87.0 14.4 14.9 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 14.7 15.5 16.0 1.6 93.7 88.2 13.4 13.9 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 9 91 100 16.0 17.3 18.8 1.7 94.0 87.2 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 7 93 100 14.9 15.8 18.1 1.5 92.7 86.4 13.4 14.0 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 6 94 100 13.1 14.3 15.0 1.9 96.0 90.0 11.7 12.2 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 16.6 18.2 20.3 2.3 97.0 91.8 15.0 15.6 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------