***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2012.-01.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 9999.0 31.0 30.2 3.3 89.4 84.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 6 94 100 29.4 31.4 30.7 3.8 93.1 88.0 26.5 27.6 28.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 29.5 31.5 30.8 3.8 92.0 87.7 26.4 27.6 28.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 22.0 23.1 27.7 2.6 84.0 80.0 19.1 20.3 21.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 29.9 31.3 28.5 3.0 86.4 82.1 26.6 28.0 29.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 28.3 29.4 25.6 2.5 83.4 79.7 25.3 26.6 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 29.2 30.8 30.1 3.2 90.6 85.2 26.3 27.4 28.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 11 89 100 18.0 19.6 26.8 3.2 88.6 84.3 14.6 15.9 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 29.5 31.1 29.5 3.2 88.5 83.9 26.2 27.5 28.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 29.2 30.9 27.9 3.4 89.3 84.8 25.9 27.2 28.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 29.6 31.1 28.3 3.1 87.5 83.2 26.1 27.5 28.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 10 90 100 28.6 30.2 27.9 3.3 88.9 84.7 25.4 26.6 27.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 29.9 31.5 27.8 3.3 88.9 84.8 26.5 27.8 29.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 15 85 100 29.0 30.2 28.6 3.0 86.8 81.9 26.3 27.4 28.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 30.0 30.8 29.0 2.2 81.9 77.8 27.3 28.5 29.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 15 85 100 30.4 32.0 28.1 3.0 87.9 83.7 27.0 28.4 29.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 28.7 30.1 29.6 3.0 89.3 83.5 25.8 26.9 28.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 28.4 30.0 26.9 3.4 88.9 84.3 25.2 26.5 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 5 95 100 29.0 31.1 31.0 4.0 94.2 89.5 26.1 27.2 28.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 13 87 100 24.3 26.1 25.0 3.4 89.1 85.3 20.9 22.3 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 29.5 30.8 30.1 3.1 86.7 82.3 26.4 27.6 28.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 29.2 30.5 29.4 2.8 87.7 82.2 26.4 27.5 28.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 5 95 100 29.4 31.5 30.9 4.0 93.9 89.4 26.2 27.4 28.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 28.8 30.2 28.7 3.2 88.0 83.2 25.8 27.0 28.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 29.4 30.3 28.4 2.6 83.1 79.0 26.4 27.6 28.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 29.4 30.7 27.2 3.0 86.3 82.8 26.2 27.5 28.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 29.0 30.0 29.0 2.7 84.9 80.4 26.1 27.3 28.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 30.1 30.9 28.2 2.3 82.1 78.3 27.5 28.6 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 23.8 25.4 26.0 3.3 88.4 84.1 20.6 21.9 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 7 93 100 29.3 31.3 30.9 3.8 93.2 88.4 26.3 27.4 28.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------