***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2012.-08.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 11 89 100 9999.0 33.2 32.6 4.8 95.1 87.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 11 89 100 30.1 32.9 33.4 5.5 96.5 89.9 27.3 28.4 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 30.4 33.5 33.2 5.4 96.4 89.7 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 24.0 26.7 30.6 4.1 92.5 85.5 20.1 21.7 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 10 90 100 31.5 34.3 30.9 4.5 94.2 87.1 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 29.8 32.7 28.2 4.2 93.6 86.8 26.2 27.7 29.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 29.9 32.6 32.9 5.1 95.6 88.6 27.0 28.2 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 12 88 100 19.0 22.1 29.4 4.8 95.3 88.4 15.6 16.9 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 30.9 33.9 31.4 4.8 95.2 88.1 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 30.6 33.6 30.1 4.9 95.3 88.3 27.1 28.5 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 31.0 34.1 30.6 4.7 95.2 88.2 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 30.1 33.3 30.5 4.8 95.4 88.5 26.5 27.9 29.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 31.2 34.4 29.7 4.7 94.5 87.7 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 11 89 100 29.9 32.4 30.9 4.8 94.8 87.1 26.9 28.1 29.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 31.7 34.1 31.1 4.0 92.5 85.8 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 31.9 34.8 30.1 4.5 94.1 87.2 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 29.2 31.8 32.6 5.0 95.3 88.2 26.5 27.6 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 29.7 32.7 29.3 4.9 95.4 88.2 26.2 27.6 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 9 91 100 29.8 33.0 33.6 5.7 96.9 90.5 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 10 90 100 25.5 28.8 27.1 4.8 95.2 88.2 21.7 23.2 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 30.8 33.7 32.2 4.8 95.1 88.0 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 14 86 100 30.0 32.6 32.5 4.9 94.9 87.7 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 30.0 33.1 33.3 5.7 97.1 90.5 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 29.8 32.5 31.0 4.9 95.6 88.2 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 30.7 33.3 30.8 4.4 93.9 86.5 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 30.6 33.4 29.6 4.4 93.6 87.0 27.1 28.5 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 30.0 32.3 31.5 4.6 94.2 86.7 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 31.9 34.3 30.8 4.0 91.8 85.1 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 9 91 100 25.0 28.0 28.2 4.8 95.3 88.0 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 11 89 100 29.9 32.8 33.5 5.5 96.6 90.0 27.1 28.2 29.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------