***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2012.-15.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 9999.0 31.3 30.9 3.0 87.8 80.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 29.6 31.2 31.3 3.4 89.3 82.0 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 29.6 31.4 31.3 3.4 90.1 82.9 26.6 27.9 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 22.7 23.7 29.2 2.3 82.4 75.6 19.7 21.0 22.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 29.9 31.3 29.3 2.7 85.5 78.1 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 28.6 29.8 26.8 2.5 85.7 77.4 25.9 27.1 28.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 29.6 31.1 30.9 3.1 87.6 79.9 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 17.7 19.0 27.6 2.8 87.0 78.8 15.0 16.2 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 29.5 31.1 29.6 2.9 87.6 79.9 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 29.2 30.6 28.3 2.9 87.6 79.6 26.4 27.6 28.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 29.4 30.9 29.0 2.9 87.4 79.7 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 28.7 30.1 28.7 2.8 86.9 79.1 25.9 27.1 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 29.8 31.0 28.1 2.7 86.0 78.3 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 28.9 30.2 28.9 2.9 86.6 78.5 26.5 27.6 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 30.6 31.5 29.8 2.3 82.3 75.9 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 30.6 31.9 28.6 2.6 85.7 78.2 27.6 28.9 30.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 29.1 30.6 30.5 2.9 86.3 78.5 26.5 27.6 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 28.3 29.8 27.4 2.9 87.6 79.3 25.5 26.7 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 29.2 30.9 31.5 3.5 90.5 83.2 26.3 27.5 28.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 24.1 25.4 25.2 2.7 86.7 78.0 21.3 22.5 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 29.6 31.2 30.5 2.9 87.5 80.1 26.7 27.9 29.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 29.4 30.7 30.4 2.9 86.1 78.4 26.9 28.0 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 29.2 31.0 31.2 3.6 91.0 83.5 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 28.8 30.3 29.1 3.0 88.3 80.2 26.1 27.2 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 29.8 31.0 29.2 2.6 85.1 77.8 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 29.3 30.3 28.1 2.5 84.4 76.7 26.9 28.0 28.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 29.2 30.5 29.8 2.7 85.7 78.3 26.5 27.7 28.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 30.6 31.5 29.4 2.2 81.6 75.0 27.7 29.0 30.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 23.7 25.3 26.2 2.8 86.9 78.3 20.8 22.0 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 29.5 31.3 31.5 3.4 89.9 82.8 26.5 27.8 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------