***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2012.-22.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 9999.0 31.3 31.2 2.6 81.7 74.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 30.8 32.4 31.6 3.0 84.9 76.5 27.4 28.9 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 31.0 32.5 31.6 2.9 83.9 76.1 27.4 29.0 30.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 24.0 24.6 29.5 2.0 75.3 68.8 20.8 22.3 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 31.5 32.4 29.5 2.3 78.1 71.3 28.1 29.7 31.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 29.8 30.7 27.1 2.3 80.3 72.5 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 30.7 32.1 31.3 2.8 83.6 75.1 27.4 28.9 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 19.0 19.9 27.8 2.5 80.3 73.1 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 31.0 32.1 29.9 2.5 80.3 73.0 27.5 29.0 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 30.6 31.6 28.5 2.6 80.4 73.1 27.3 28.8 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 31.1 32.2 29.2 2.5 80.6 73.4 27.6 29.2 30.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 30.1 31.2 29.0 2.6 81.0 73.9 26.7 28.2 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 31.3 32.3 28.4 2.5 80.1 73.2 28.0 29.5 30.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 30.5 31.5 29.2 2.5 80.5 73.2 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 31.7 32.4 30.2 2.0 76.8 69.5 28.9 30.2 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 32.1 33.1 28.9 2.4 79.4 72.4 28.8 30.3 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 30.1 31.5 31.0 2.7 83.0 74.8 26.8 28.3 29.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 29.6 30.5 27.5 2.5 79.9 72.7 26.5 27.9 29.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 30.4 32.0 31.8 3.1 85.6 77.3 27.0 28.4 29.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 25.3 26.1 25.3 2.3 78.6 71.5 22.0 23.5 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 30.8 31.9 30.8 2.5 80.3 73.1 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 30.8 32.0 30.9 2.7 82.1 74.2 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 30.6 32.2 31.5 3.2 85.6 77.5 27.1 28.6 30.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 30.3 31.4 29.3 2.6 81.4 73.9 27.0 28.4 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 31.1 32.0 29.5 2.2 77.8 70.6 27.8 29.3 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 30.6 31.5 28.4 2.2 78.4 72.1 27.9 29.2 30.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 30.5 31.5 30.1 2.4 79.4 71.7 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 31.7 32.3 29.8 2.0 75.5 68.9 28.9 30.2 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 25.0 25.9 26.3 2.4 78.9 71.7 21.7 23.2 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 30.7 32.3 31.7 3.0 84.9 76.6 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------