***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2012.-22.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 85 15 0 100 9999.0 29.3 19.1 37.1 17.1 17.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 82 18 0 100 27.0 23.1 19.8 39.4 16.3 17.8 34.3 46.2 59.4 30 Becej 27400G00 87 13 0 100 26.6 23.8 19.6 38.4 16.3 17.5 35.9 48.4 62.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 88 12 0 100 22.7 21.8 20.3 39.3 19.3 19.1 33.2 48.6 67.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 86 14 0 100 23.7 21.7 19.4 38.3 18.2 18.5 32.5 45.5 60.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 85 15 0 100 19.9 16.2 27.6 41.5 15.8 17.4 28.1 40.9 56.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 83 17 0 100 23.6 20.4 21.2 41.7 17.2 18.5 31.0 42.6 55.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 85 15 0 100 46.6 38.9 19.6 36.7 13.7 15.7 58.8 75.5 93.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 83 17 0 100 24.2 21.0 19.3 37.2 17.5 18.0 31.5 43.4 57.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 86 14 0 100 32.0 25.9 21.4 36.8 14.4 16.0 43.0 58.7 76.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 85 15 0 100 21.3 17.5 15.4 33.9 15.6 16.3 29.0 40.5 54.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 87 13 0 100 24.4 20.0 14.4 33.2 15.0 16.0 34.4 48.7 65.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 88 12 0 100 15.2 13.8 18.7 36.0 17.3 17.5 21.7 31.5 42.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 83 17 0 100 38.2 32.1 23.4 37.9 15.6 17.1 49.1 65.6 84.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 12.5 12.1 19.9 43.0 24.4 23.2 17.4 29.3 45.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 85 15 0 100 17.0 15.3 18.2 36.8 18.3 18.3 23.6 33.6 45.8 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 25.2 23.0 21.2 43.6 19.8 20.8 30.9 41.0 52.6 29 Palic 37000G16 85 15 0 100 37.5 31.8 26.6 38.7 14.2 16.2 47.0 60.1 74.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 83 17 0 100 26.8 22.6 19.3 38.3 16.5 17.6 35.1 48.3 63.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 83 17 0 100 35.8 29.8 27.5 40.9 13.8 16.5 44.4 56.5 69.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 25.9 22.6 17.9 36.6 17.7 18.0 33.7 46.9 61.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 78 22 0 100 29.8 27.7 21.2 44.8 20.5 20.9 36.5 48.4 61.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 83 17 0 100 32.3 29.6 19.5 37.4 17.7 18.2 40.0 51.4 63.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 84 16 0 100 36.1 31.1 24.0 38.9 15.7 17.2 46.2 61.0 77.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 84 16 0 100 24.7 21.9 23.4 40.0 17.7 18.3 33.0 46.1 61.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 80 20 0 100 15.5 14.2 15.6 38.0 20.4 20.0 20.6 29.5 40.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 82 18 0 100 30.2 26.6 23.8 40.2 18.0 18.8 39.4 54.9 72.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 82 18 0 100 16.3 15.8 20.0 40.9 21.7 21.1 22.8 35.2 50.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 85 15 0 100 49.4 41.6 27.0 38.8 13.6 15.8 61.5 77.8 95.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 82 18 0 100 30.6 26.5 20.0 39.3 16.3 17.7 38.4 50.4 63.6 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 na severu 0.6-0.7, na jugu 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------