***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2012.-01.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 80 20 0 100 9999.0 5.7 4.9 28.2 21.9 19.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 5.6 5.1 4.7 27.6 22.5 19.5 7.5 11.9 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 84 16 0 100 3.9 3.6 4.6 26.8 20.4 18.5 6.1 10.3 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 80 20 0 100 3.7 3.9 5.5 32.2 25.2 22.3 5.4 9.3 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 2.7 2.5 5.2 31.1 24.0 20.6 4.0 7.8 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 2.0 1.5 5.3 29.4 21.6 19.9 2.7 5.4 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 3.7 3.6 5.5 32.7 25.4 21.3 4.9 8.7 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 87 13 0 100 4.1 2.6 3.6 22.1 15.7 14.6 7.5 14.3 24.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 83 17 0 100 2.4 2.2 5.0 29.7 23.0 18.6 3.8 7.3 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 87 13 0 100 3.1 2.6 4.7 25.9 18.4 16.2 5.5 10.3 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 86 14 0 100 1.9 1.6 3.7 25.4 20.8 17.4 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 86 14 0 100 2.5 1.7 2.8 20.5 17.2 15.2 4.3 8.3 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 83 17 0 100 1.8 1.5 3.6 24.0 19.3 17.9 2.8 4.8 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 85 15 0 100 5.0 4.5 4.5 22.7 20.4 18.2 8.0 14.2 22.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 1.8 1.8 5.2 32.9 29.8 25.9 2.3 5.4 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 82 18 0 100 1.5 1.4 4.0 27.5 23.0 20.2 2.3 4.8 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 3.3 3.6 5.4 32.4 28.1 23.5 4.4 8.9 15.3 29 Palic 37000G16 84 16 0 100 4.2 3.4 5.3 26.0 19.4 17.6 6.7 12.7 20.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 80 20 0 100 3.3 2.5 4.3 24.7 21.0 18.8 4.8 9.5 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 84 16 0 100 4.7 3.3 4.1 22.0 16.1 15.5 7.3 12.3 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 4.7 4.8 5.2 30.7 23.3 19.5 6.8 11.1 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 81 19 0 100 3.7 4.5 5.4 32.4 28.3 24.2 5.4 9.6 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 82 18 0 100 4.0 3.2 4.0 21.9 19.7 18.0 6.1 11.2 18.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 86 14 0 100 7.4 7.2 5.2 26.6 21.1 18.8 11.4 18.3 27.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 78 22 0 100 4.2 3.9 6.0 31.7 23.0 21.1 5.8 9.8 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 1.5 0.9 3.4 26.3 21.5 20.0 2.0 4.4 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 4.6 4.0 5.9 30.8 23.7 21.4 6.0 10.7 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 2.3 2.5 5.3 33.8 28.3 24.6 3.1 5.6 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 83 17 0 100 5.9 4.2 5.1 24.5 17.7 16.5 9.3 16.8 27.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 5.2 4.4 4.8 28.3 21.3 19.2 7.2 12.2 18.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------