***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2012.-08.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 9999.0 7.5 5.0 42.9 40.8 24.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 3.6 5.2 4.3 36.4 35.5 25.9 4.7 8.6 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 4.2 6.8 5.0 41.9 39.4 26.1 5.4 9.7 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 2.8 5.5 5.9 48.1 43.1 27.2 3.6 7.2 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 2.7 5.6 5.7 48.7 45.2 27.3 3.5 6.6 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 2.4 4.0 8.8 45.7 40.3 28.2 2.9 5.9 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 4.7 6.9 4.9 39.5 36.5 27.0 6.1 11.0 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 6.2 9.3 5.7 40.7 36.4 23.9 8.3 13.9 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 2.1 4.9 5.8 47.2 43.5 24.5 3.0 6.3 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 4.5 7.6 6.2 42.9 38.6 24.4 6.0 11.5 19.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 2.7 4.8 4.7 42.5 40.4 24.3 3.6 6.5 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 3.3 5.6 4.4 39.1 37.7 22.1 4.7 8.2 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 2.7 4.3 5.9 42.1 39.7 25.4 3.3 6.1 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 4.6 7.1 5.7 40.2 36.8 24.8 6.0 11.9 20.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 2.0 4.7 6.2 55.7 47.9 32.3 2.2 5.0 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 3.3 5.7 5.9 45.7 41.8 27.3 4.1 7.4 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 3.3 4.6 4.3 36.8 35.3 25.7 4.2 7.9 13.1 29 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 4.9 7.5 7.3 42.8 38.7 25.4 6.1 10.7 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 4.0 6.2 4.2 36.4 36.4 25.5 5.4 9.4 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 4.6 7.0 7.8 43.7 37.6 27.8 6.0 10.6 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 3.3 6.8 4.9 44.0 42.1 23.7 4.4 9.4 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 78 22 0 100 3.5 5.1 3.9 34.9 34.6 24.9 4.7 9.0 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 4.4 7.3 4.5 38.4 38.1 25.1 6.0 10.7 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 4.6 7.6 6.4 42.6 39.1 25.0 5.9 10.7 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 3.4 6.4 6.7 49.7 44.4 26.8 4.3 7.6 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 2.7 5.0 4.9 44.0 42.1 26.1 3.5 6.4 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 4.2 7.5 6.4 48.0 43.0 26.8 5.2 9.6 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 2.5 5.4 6.1 51.2 45.3 30.0 3.1 6.5 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 6.1 9.4 7.4 42.3 37.4 25.5 7.9 14.5 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 5.2 7.5 4.7 39.2 38.2 27.6 6.5 10.2 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------