***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2012.-15.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 9999.0 5.4 4.6 34.3 37.4 27.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 4.1 5.5 4.8 39.8 40.4 31.5 4.0 7.6 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 3.7 4.9 4.6 36.4 38.4 28.3 3.5 8.3 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 4.3 5.4 4.2 29.3 35.3 25.8 4.8 10.6 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 5.0 6.0 4.1 30.4 34.0 25.4 5.7 11.0 18.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 4.4 6.1 7.1 38.5 40.0 30.3 4.1 9.4 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.3 4.8 5.2 42.2 43.0 33.3 3.2 6.2 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 9.9 12.1 4.7 34.7 34.3 27.0 11.5 19.5 29.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 4.1 5.1 4.1 30.8 33.2 24.2 5.1 10.3 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 5.9 7.1 4.9 33.0 33.8 26.3 6.9 13.8 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 4.2 4.2 3.4 28.6 32.1 24.5 4.5 9.3 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 6.3 7.6 3.5 31.3 33.8 25.2 7.3 12.9 20.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 4.0 5.6 4.9 34.7 38.0 28.3 4.6 8.6 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 5.7 7.6 5.4 35.8 37.1 28.4 6.3 11.9 19.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 2.5 3.7 3.9 31.2 39.1 28.4 2.7 5.8 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 4.7 5.7 4.2 31.3 36.1 27.0 5.0 9.2 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 4.1 6.4 5.5 50.4 45.6 35.9 4.0 7.4 12.2 29 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 6.6 7.9 6.1 34.6 34.1 26.8 7.7 13.6 21.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 5.0 6.5 4.6 37.5 39.0 30.2 5.0 9.5 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 6.2 7.8 6.7 37.7 34.5 27.6 7.3 12.7 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 4.2 5.2 3.8 30.9 33.6 24.1 5.0 9.6 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 5.7 9.1 5.5 51.4 46.5 36.2 5.1 10.2 17.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 3.7 5.0 4.4 35.7 37.6 28.3 4.1 8.1 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 5.9 7.4 5.4 35.7 36.4 27.9 6.4 11.4 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 3.7 4.9 5.0 31.7 35.2 26.1 4.3 9.1 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 4.0 5.5 4.2 38.1 40.8 29.9 4.3 7.1 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 4.2 6.0 5.6 35.0 37.6 27.8 4.7 9.7 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.9 3.7 4.1 29.9 37.2 26.7 3.0 6.4 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 9.4 11.4 6.2 34.8 33.9 26.6 11.2 17.3 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 4.0 5.4 4.8 37.7 39.9 30.3 3.8 8.3 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------