***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2012.-22.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 9999.0 5.9 4.6 50.8 46.2 30.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 3.2 7.8 6.0 64.1 51.9 36.1 3.7 7.3 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 2.8 6.4 5.4 57.6 49.3 31.3 3.5 6.5 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 2.6 6.5 4.8 57.6 48.2 32.1 2.9 7.1 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 2.1 4.9 4.4 50.2 46.2 30.7 2.6 5.8 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 2.0 5.5 6.4 59.0 48.4 32.4 2.5 5.9 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 2.3 5.5 5.7 60.1 49.8 36.4 2.6 5.5 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 3.2 7.3 5.6 57.7 48.2 33.1 3.9 7.8 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 1.5 3.5 4.4 46.9 45.7 29.2 1.8 4.2 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 2.1 4.6 5.6 52.5 46.9 31.8 2.4 5.1 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 1.6 3.6 3.6 46.0 43.6 30.3 2.0 4.8 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 2.3 5.1 3.7 49.7 44.5 30.2 2.8 6.5 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 1.2 2.8 4.3 49.5 44.5 31.0 1.5 3.6 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 2.9 8.0 7.7 62.8 51.2 31.7 3.4 7.5 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 1.9 5.9 4.5 69.2 53.6 32.3 2.3 5.2 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 1.5 3.2 4.1 48.5 45.0 31.1 1.8 4.0 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 2.3 5.1 6.0 64.8 52.1 36.3 2.6 4.8 7.7 29 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 2.5 5.8 7.8 58.3 49.6 33.1 2.8 5.9 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 3.1 8.0 6.2 66.8 53.4 35.0 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 3.2 6.9 8.9 67.7 52.3 36.7 3.3 6.4 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 1.8 3.5 4.0 46.7 45.0 28.9 2.0 4.3 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 2.4 6.4 6.5 72.3 55.6 36.4 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 2.6 6.8 6.6 67.0 53.6 33.1 3.2 6.1 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 2.4 6.1 7.0 58.3 49.3 31.0 3.1 6.2 10.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 2.8 6.6 5.7 55.5 48.0 32.6 3.5 7.1 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 1.6 3.3 3.2 51.8 44.6 31.2 1.8 4.1 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 3.0 7.1 5.9 55.4 48.0 32.7 3.3 7.9 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 2.5 6.1 4.5 59.0 49.2 31.3 2.8 6.3 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 4.6 9.6 8.3 61.2 50.6 34.3 5.1 9.5 15.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 2.7 6.3 5.7 61.6 50.8 35.0 3.2 6.1 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------