***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2018.-01.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 99 1 0 100 13.2 13.0 14.8 -2.3 13.5 15.1 14.2 14.9 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 97 3 0 100 12.4 12.3 14.8 -2.2 15.0 16.8 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 99 1 0 100 14.5 14.2 15.0 -2.3 13.2 14.7 15.7 16.7 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 98 2 0 100 9.4 8.7 12.5 -2.4 10.7 12.7 10.7 11.8 12.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 97 3 0 100 11.5 11.0 13.0 -2.3 11.5 13.5 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 94 6 0 100 10.6 10.1 10.7 -2.1 11.5 13.7 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 93 7 0 100 13.1 12.9 14.9 -2.1 15.1 17.1 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 97 3 0 100 5.6 4.9 10.3 -2.3 9.8 12.1 6.7 7.7 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 96 4 0 100 12.8 12.6 13.6 -1.9 13.8 16.1 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 96 4 0 100 12.8 12.4 11.6 -2.1 12.0 14.5 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 94 6 0 100 12.6 12.0 12.8 -2.2 10.6 12.9 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 98 2 0 100 10.4 9.6 11.2 -2.5 8.6 10.6 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 91 9 0 100 12.0 11.7 12.0 -1.9 13.8 16.2 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 86 14 0 100 13.5 13.4 13.5 -1.8 18.4 20.3 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 95 5 0 100 14.0 13.6 14.7 -2.0 11.7 14.0 14.9 15.7 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 93 7 0 100 12.8 12.2 12.4 -2.1 11.7 13.9 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 93 7 0 100 13.5 13.4 14.7 -2.0 16.7 18.7 14.5 15.4 16.2 29 Palic 37000G16 96 4 0 100 11.3 11.0 11.0 -2.1 13.0 15.3 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 98 2 0 100 12.8 12.7 14.8 -2.2 14.8 16.4 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 99 1 0 100 7.3 6.6 8.6 -2.4 9.4 11.3 8.3 9.1 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 99 1 0 100 12.6 12.3 14.5 -2.1 12.9 14.8 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 94 6 0 100 12.5 12.5 14.8 -2.0 16.9 18.4 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 98 2 0 100 12.3 12.2 14.8 -2.1 15.2 16.6 13.4 14.4 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 97 3 0 100 12.5 12.3 13.3 -1.9 15.0 17.1 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 98 2 0 100 12.5 12.3 13.9 -2.3 13.2 15.0 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 11.7 11.2 10.6 -2.4 10.3 12.2 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 98 2 0 100 12.0 11.8 14.3 -2.2 13.8 15.6 13.3 14.3 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 97 3 0 100 11.7 11.2 13.2 -2.3 10.0 12.2 12.7 13.4 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 98 2 0 100 9.6 9.2 10.1 -2.2 12.1 14.4 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 99 1 0 100 13.0 12.8 14.9 -2.2 14.3 16.0 14.2 15.1 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------