***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2018.-08.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.8 17.5 -0.2 45.2 48.2 15.4 16.0 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.4 17.6 0.0 51.0 52.5 14.4 15.3 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 17.8 17.4 17.9 -0.1 48.6 50.6 16.5 17.4 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.3 12.5 15.2 -0.2 45.4 48.2 11.7 12.8 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.1 15.5 -0.2 45.3 48.4 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.5 13.1 13.1 0.0 48.9 50.9 12.4 13.1 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.6 17.7 0.0 49.0 50.7 14.7 15.6 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 8.8 7.9 12.7 -0.3 42.2 44.9 7.4 8.4 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 14.3 15.3 15.7 0.0 49.0 51.2 14.5 15.3 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 14.2 15.0 13.8 -0.2 46.1 48.4 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 15.5 14.9 14.9 -0.2 45.8 48.5 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.3 12.6 13.6 -0.4 40.6 43.8 12.3 13.0 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 14.8 14.3 13.7 -0.2 46.2 49.3 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.2 16.0 15.7 0.2 54.6 54.9 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 15.5 16.4 16.8 -0.1 48.0 50.6 15.7 16.5 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.4 14.4 -0.2 46.5 49.4 14.8 15.6 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.3 17.6 0.2 54.7 55.1 15.2 16.1 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.0 13.6 13.3 0.0 49.8 51.1 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.4 17.7 0.1 51.3 52.9 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.9 9.4 11.1 -0.2 44.3 46.4 8.9 9.6 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 14.1 15.1 16.9 -0.1 47.9 50.3 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.3 17.7 0.3 55.8 56.0 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.2 15.0 17.5 0.1 52.3 53.7 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.7 15.6 0.1 53.3 53.9 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.0 16.3 -0.3 43.6 46.9 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 14.4 13.8 12.9 -0.3 42.4 46.3 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.7 14.9 16.8 -0.3 44.1 47.2 14.1 15.2 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 14.7 14.2 15.7 -0.1 46.5 49.4 13.6 14.4 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.9 12.4 12.5 -0.1 48.1 49.6 11.5 12.5 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.1 15.7 17.8 -0.1 48.7 50.7 14.8 15.7 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------