***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2018.-15.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 14.2 15.3 17.8 0.0 50.2 50.3 14.4 15.3 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 13.8 15.3 17.9 0.2 54.4 52.9 14.0 15.1 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 15.9 17.2 18.2 0.1 52.7 52.6 16.1 17.0 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 11.2 12.1 15.3 -0.2 45.2 47.4 11.3 12.3 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 14.3 13.6 15.1 -0.2 45.2 47.4 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.0 12.6 13.5 -0.1 47.9 49.3 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 14.4 15.6 18.0 0.2 53.0 51.8 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.9 13.1 0.0 49.1 50.6 7.2 8.0 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 14.1 14.9 15.3 -0.2 46.5 48.3 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 14.0 14.9 13.9 -0.1 48.0 49.7 14.1 15.0 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.1 14.6 14.7 -0.1 47.6 49.6 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.0 12.5 13.8 -0.1 47.5 49.5 11.8 12.7 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 13.0 13.6 13.1 -0.3 42.2 45.4 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 14.6 15.7 15.5 0.0 50.0 50.6 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 16.7 16.3 16.7 -0.1 47.6 49.1 15.7 16.4 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 15.6 14.9 14.1 -0.2 44.7 47.2 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 14.7 16.2 17.9 0.4 57.1 54.4 14.9 15.8 16.7 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 12.3 13.3 13.1 0.0 49.8 50.8 12.5 13.3 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 14.1 15.5 17.9 0.3 55.1 53.7 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.5 9.1 10.9 -0.1 48.8 50.5 8.3 9.1 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 13.8 14.7 16.8 -0.1 47.4 48.6 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 13.9 15.5 17.8 0.5 58.9 56.2 14.1 15.0 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.1 14.9 17.7 0.2 54.6 53.7 13.8 14.7 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 14.3 15.4 15.3 0.0 51.0 51.5 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 13.9 14.8 16.2 -0.1 47.7 48.6 14.0 15.0 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 12.9 13.6 13.1 -0.1 46.5 48.5 13.0 13.7 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 13.5 14.7 17.0 0.0 49.7 49.8 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 14.4 13.8 15.6 -0.3 44.6 46.9 13.2 14.1 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 11.0 11.9 12.5 0.0 49.7 51.0 11.1 12.0 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 14.4 15.7 18.1 0.2 53.2 52.3 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------