***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2018.-22.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 14.4 15.7 18.6 0.1 51.2 50.7 14.6 15.6 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.9 18.8 0.4 57.4 55.5 14.4 15.5 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 16.3 18.0 19.0 0.2 54.9 53.3 16.5 17.6 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.8 12.8 16.0 -0.2 44.7 46.2 11.9 13.2 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.2 13.4 15.8 -0.3 43.5 45.6 12.7 13.8 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.2 12.8 14.2 -0.1 48.3 49.2 12.0 12.9 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 16.4 16.3 18.9 0.4 57.0 55.0 14.8 15.9 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 8.8 8.1 13.7 -0.2 46.4 48.5 7.3 8.3 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 15.5 14.9 16.0 -0.2 45.9 47.2 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.4 14.8 14.6 -0.1 46.6 48.3 14.0 15.0 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.1 14.5 15.4 -0.2 45.7 47.4 13.8 14.7 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.2 12.5 14.4 -0.2 45.3 47.4 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 14.3 13.5 13.8 -0.3 42.6 45.3 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.8 16.3 0.1 52.8 52.9 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 16.8 16.3 17.5 -0.1 46.7 47.8 15.7 16.5 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.0 14.8 -0.2 44.3 46.4 14.3 15.3 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 17.0 17.2 18.7 0.5 59.8 57.2 15.6 16.6 17.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.2 13.8 0.0 49.2 50.2 12.3 13.2 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 16.0 16.0 18.8 0.4 58.0 56.0 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.5 9.0 11.4 -0.2 46.3 48.5 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.4 14.8 17.5 -0.1 47.6 48.4 14.0 15.0 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.8 18.7 0.6 61.3 58.6 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.3 15.4 18.7 0.4 58.5 56.4 14.0 14.9 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.6 16.1 0.1 52.7 52.5 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.4 14.8 16.9 -0.1 47.0 48.0 13.9 15.0 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 14.4 13.9 13.7 -0.2 46.1 48.0 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.2 17.7 0.0 50.4 50.3 13.9 15.2 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.3 13.7 16.4 -0.3 44.2 46.1 13.0 14.0 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.0 12.5 13.2 -0.1 48.4 49.9 11.5 12.6 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 16.4 16.3 18.9 0.3 56.0 54.3 14.8 15.9 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------