***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2018.-22.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 14.9 14.9 17.2 -0.6 30.9 34.5 15.0 15.5 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.4 14.7 17.3 -0.4 38.3 40.3 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 16.4 16.6 17.5 -0.5 34.2 37.0 16.6 17.2 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 11.7 11.6 14.8 -0.8 24.8 29.7 11.9 12.5 13.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 13.0 12.9 14.9 -0.8 24.7 29.5 13.3 13.8 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 12.0 12.1 12.9 -0.6 28.1 32.1 12.3 12.8 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.0 17.4 -0.4 37.3 39.4 14.9 15.5 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 7.4 7.3 12.5 -0.7 25.4 30.2 7.6 8.1 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 14.3 14.3 15.2 -0.6 29.2 33.8 14.5 15.0 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 14.2 14.2 13.5 -0.6 27.9 32.6 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 14.0 14.0 14.5 -0.7 26.9 31.5 14.2 14.7 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 11.9 11.8 13.2 -0.8 22.8 27.7 12.1 12.7 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 13.3 13.2 13.2 -0.7 24.3 29.7 13.5 14.0 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 14.9 15.2 15.2 -0.4 37.2 40.0 15.1 15.6 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 15.6 15.6 16.4 -0.6 28.8 33.5 15.7 16.3 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 14.3 14.3 13.9 -0.7 25.1 30.0 14.6 15.2 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 16.2 15.7 17.2 -0.2 42.8 43.8 15.4 16.0 16.5 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 12.6 12.7 12.8 -0.5 30.6 34.6 12.8 13.4 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 15.5 14.8 17.3 -0.4 38.6 40.4 14.6 15.2 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 8.4 8.4 10.5 -0.7 23.8 28.6 8.7 9.3 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 14.1 14.1 16.4 -0.6 29.3 33.4 14.3 14.9 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 15.1 14.7 17.2 -0.2 44.3 45.1 14.3 14.9 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 14.9 14.4 17.2 -0.4 38.7 40.6 14.2 14.7 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 14.5 14.7 15.1 -0.4 35.5 38.5 14.6 15.3 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 14.1 14.2 15.8 -0.7 27.5 31.8 14.4 14.9 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 13.2 13.0 12.6 -0.8 22.4 28.0 13.4 13.9 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 14.0 14.1 16.5 -0.6 30.1 33.9 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 13.2 13.1 15.2 -0.7 24.7 29.8 13.4 14.0 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 11.5 11.5 12.1 -0.6 29.0 33.0 11.7 12.2 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.1 17.4 -0.5 35.9 38.4 15.0 15.6 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------