***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2018.-01.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 98 2 0 100 25.0 22.8 22.8 -4.5 3.9 6.7 26.5 27.7 28.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 96 4 0 100 25.2 23.6 23.3 -4.2 5.5 8.5 26.5 27.6 28.7 30 Becej 27400G00 98 2 0 100 24.9 22.8 22.7 -4.8 4.1 6.8 26.4 27.6 28.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 17.5 14.4 19.2 -5.4 1.7 3.0 19.1 20.3 21.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 24.9 21.7 20.1 -5.6 2.0 3.4 26.6 28.0 29.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 100 0 0 100 23.7 20.8 17.7 -5.3 2.3 3.5 25.3 26.6 27.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 96 4 0 100 25.0 23.2 23.3 -4.1 5.1 8.0 26.3 27.4 28.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 100 0 0 100 13.0 9.8 17.7 -5.7 2.0 3.1 14.6 15.9 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 24.6 21.6 21.2 -5.3 2.2 3.9 26.2 27.5 28.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 100 0 0 100 24.3 21.3 18.9 -5.5 2.3 3.7 25.9 27.2 28.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 100 0 0 100 24.3 21.0 20.2 -5.7 2.1 3.4 26.1 27.5 28.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 100 0 0 100 23.8 20.6 18.8 -5.7 1.9 3.1 25.4 26.6 27.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 24.8 21.9 19.6 -5.6 2.4 3.7 26.5 27.8 29.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 24.9 23.1 21.3 -4.7 4.4 6.7 26.3 27.4 28.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 99 1 0 100 25.9 22.9 22.3 -4.9 1.6 3.4 27.3 28.5 29.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 100 0 0 100 25.3 22.0 19.6 -5.6 2.1 3.4 27.0 28.4 29.7 30 Nis 06700G01 95 5 0 100 24.5 22.9 23.2 -4.0 5.8 8.9 25.8 26.9 28.0 29 Palic 37000G16 100 0 0 100 23.6 20.9 18.1 -5.4 2.7 4.1 25.2 26.5 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 96 4 0 100 24.8 23.1 23.2 -4.3 5.4 8.6 26.1 27.2 28.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 100 0 0 100 19.2 16.0 15.7 -5.7 2.2 3.2 20.9 22.3 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 24.8 22.1 22.1 -5.2 2.6 4.5 26.4 27.6 28.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 96 4 0 100 25.1 23.6 23.2 -3.9 6.3 9.5 26.4 27.5 28.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 96 4 0 100 24.9 23.2 23.0 -4.3 5.5 8.6 26.2 27.4 28.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 99 1 0 100 24.3 21.9 20.8 -5.1 3.3 5.3 25.8 27.0 28.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 99 1 0 100 24.9 22.3 21.2 -5.0 2.8 4.7 26.4 27.6 28.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 24.6 21.5 18.1 -5.7 2.1 3.2 26.2 27.5 28.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 98 2 0 100 24.7 22.5 22.1 -4.6 3.6 6.0 26.1 27.3 28.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 100 0 0 100 26.1 23.1 20.3 -5.3 1.5 2.8 27.5 28.6 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 18.9 16.1 17.3 -5.5 2.7 4.0 20.6 21.9 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 96 4 0 100 24.9 23.2 23.3 -4.3 5.3 8.3 26.3 27.4 28.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------