***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2018.-08.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 29.3 28.4 27.7 -0.6 41.9 42.8 27.9 28.9 29.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 28.8 28.0 28.0 -0.4 44.6 45.0 27.3 28.4 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 29.0 27.9 27.9 -0.6 41.4 42.2 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 19.7 20.0 24.7 -1.3 32.1 34.2 20.1 21.7 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 27.4 27.7 25.5 -1.3 32.1 34.1 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 25.8 26.1 23.0 -1.2 31.8 34.4 26.2 27.7 29.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 28.6 27.8 28.0 -0.4 44.8 45.4 27.0 28.2 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 15.1 15.3 23.3 -1.4 30.4 32.9 15.6 16.9 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 27.0 27.5 26.3 -1.0 35.6 37.2 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 26.7 27.1 24.3 -1.3 32.9 34.8 27.1 28.5 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 26.7 27.1 25.4 -1.4 30.4 32.6 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 26.0 26.2 24.4 -1.5 29.6 32.1 26.5 27.9 29.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 26.9 27.3 24.5 -1.5 29.7 32.2 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 28.5 27.7 26.3 -0.5 43.5 44.0 26.9 28.1 29.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 28.0 28.3 26.9 -1.0 34.4 36.7 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 27.6 28.0 24.9 -1.4 30.9 33.1 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 28.0 27.5 28.0 -0.1 48.0 48.0 26.5 27.6 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 26.0 26.4 23.7 -1.1 35.5 37.2 26.2 27.6 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 28.4 27.6 28.0 -0.4 45.1 45.2 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 21.4 21.7 21.3 -1.3 32.2 34.5 21.7 23.2 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 29.3 27.7 27.2 -1.0 36.9 38.4 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 28.6 28.3 28.1 0.1 51.4 50.5 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 28.6 27.9 28.0 -0.2 46.8 46.5 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 28.4 27.1 26.0 -0.8 39.2 40.4 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 29.2 27.7 26.0 -0.9 36.9 38.5 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 26.8 27.0 24.0 -1.3 31.4 34.1 27.1 28.5 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 28.6 27.5 26.9 -0.6 41.1 42.3 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 27.7 28.0 25.5 -1.3 31.5 33.9 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 21.2 21.6 22.9 -1.1 34.9 36.8 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 28.6 27.8 28.0 -0.4 43.9 44.4 27.1 28.2 29.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------