***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2018.-15.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 28.5 27.9 28.6 -0.1 49.0 48.8 26.8 28.0 29.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 28.5 28.2 28.9 0.2 52.7 51.5 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 28.4 27.9 29.0 0.0 50.5 49.9 26.6 27.9 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 19.5 20.1 26.2 -0.9 38.3 40.3 19.7 21.0 22.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 26.7 27.4 26.5 -0.8 39.3 41.3 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 25.7 26.2 23.9 -0.9 37.3 39.7 25.9 27.1 28.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 28.5 28.2 28.9 0.2 52.8 51.6 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 14.8 15.3 24.4 -1.0 36.4 38.8 15.0 16.2 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 28.4 27.3 26.8 -0.6 42.5 43.9 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 28.0 26.9 25.3 -0.8 40.1 41.8 26.4 27.6 28.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 26.3 26.9 26.0 -0.9 38.2 40.4 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 25.5 26.1 25.6 -1.1 35.4 38.1 25.9 27.1 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 26.6 27.1 24.8 -1.2 34.4 37.4 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 28.0 27.5 26.7 -0.1 48.9 48.9 26.5 27.6 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 27.6 28.3 27.3 -0.7 39.7 41.3 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 27.3 27.9 25.7 -0.9 37.3 39.7 27.6 28.9 30.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 28.1 28.0 29.0 0.4 55.1 53.4 26.5 27.6 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 27.1 26.2 24.9 -0.6 43.0 44.0 25.5 26.7 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 28.0 27.7 29.0 0.2 53.3 51.9 26.3 27.5 28.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 23.0 21.6 22.1 -1.0 37.3 39.3 21.3 22.5 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 28.5 27.5 27.8 -0.4 44.0 45.1 26.7 27.9 29.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 28.4 28.5 28.9 0.6 57.8 55.6 26.9 28.0 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 28.1 27.9 28.9 0.3 53.6 52.2 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 27.7 27.0 26.7 -0.2 47.1 47.4 26.1 27.2 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 26.8 27.7 26.7 -0.5 43.2 44.2 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 26.8 27.4 25.6 -0.7 40.1 42.1 26.9 28.0 28.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 28.1 27.5 27.7 -0.1 48.3 48.3 26.5 27.7 28.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 27.5 28.1 26.4 -0.9 37.4 39.5 27.7 29.0 30.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 22.5 21.5 23.8 -0.6 42.0 43.2 20.8 22.0 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 28.3 27.9 28.9 0.1 51.8 50.8 26.5 27.8 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------