***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2018.-22.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 29.6 29.5 30.0 0.4 55.6 54.9 27.5 29.0 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 30.5 30.0 30.4 0.9 62.3 59.7 27.4 28.9 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 29.6 29.8 30.4 0.6 58.5 57.0 27.4 29.0 30.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 23.0 21.7 27.4 -0.4 43.4 45.5 20.8 22.3 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 30.3 29.1 27.7 -0.4 44.0 46.1 28.1 29.7 31.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 28.8 27.5 25.0 -0.6 41.0 43.5 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 29.4 29.8 30.3 0.8 61.4 59.1 27.4 28.9 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.8 16.5 25.6 -0.7 40.6 43.2 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 29.6 28.9 28.1 -0.1 48.8 49.7 27.5 29.0 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 29.3 28.4 26.6 -0.3 45.7 47.2 27.3 28.8 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 29.8 28.5 27.2 -0.5 42.7 44.9 27.6 29.2 30.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 26.4 27.3 26.9 -0.8 39.6 42.4 26.7 28.2 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 27.7 28.5 26.0 -0.9 37.8 41.0 28.0 29.5 30.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 29.2 29.2 27.9 0.4 56.0 55.4 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 30.8 30.0 28.6 -0.2 47.5 48.4 28.9 30.2 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 28.5 29.5 26.9 -0.6 41.5 43.9 28.8 30.3 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 29.9 29.4 30.3 1.0 63.0 60.1 26.8 28.3 29.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 28.4 27.8 26.1 -0.1 48.7 49.5 26.5 27.9 29.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 30.0 29.6 30.6 1.0 63.3 60.6 27.0 28.4 29.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 24.0 22.7 23.2 -0.7 40.5 43.1 22.0 23.5 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 29.6 29.0 29.1 0.0 49.9 50.6 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 30.5 30.2 30.3 1.2 65.4 62.0 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 30.2 29.8 30.4 1.0 63.7 60.9 27.1 28.6 30.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 28.9 28.8 27.9 0.3 54.1 53.8 27.0 28.4 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 29.9 29.2 27.9 -0.1 48.3 49.5 27.8 29.3 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 29.7 28.7 26.8 -0.5 42.8 45.0 27.9 29.2 30.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 29.2 29.0 28.9 0.3 54.0 53.8 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 30.7 29.7 27.7 -0.5 43.2 45.2 28.9 30.2 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 23.7 22.9 24.9 -0.3 46.2 47.6 21.7 23.2 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 29.3 29.7 30.4 0.8 60.9 58.8 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------