***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2018.-22.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 27.4 27.4 27.3 -1.2 25.3 29.0 27.8 28.4 29.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 27.1 27.5 27.7 -0.9 32.2 35.1 27.5 28.2 28.9 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 27.1 27.1 27.5 -1.2 26.2 29.8 27.5 28.2 28.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 82 18 0 100 19.9 19.3 24.4 -2.0 12.2 17.2 20.5 21.3 22.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 84 16 0 100 27.2 26.6 24.9 -2.0 11.9 16.8 28.0 28.8 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 88 12 0 100 26.0 25.3 22.4 -2.0 10.1 14.6 26.7 27.4 28.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 27.1 27.4 27.6 -0.9 31.9 34.9 27.4 28.1 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 89 11 0 100 15.2 14.6 22.7 -2.2 9.8 14.2 15.9 16.6 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 26.9 26.4 25.6 -1.7 15.4 20.4 27.5 28.3 29.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 83 17 0 100 26.6 26.1 23.8 -2.0 13.2 17.7 27.2 28.0 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 86 14 0 100 26.7 26.0 24.7 -2.1 10.7 15.6 27.5 28.3 29.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 89 11 0 100 26.0 25.2 23.9 -2.3 9.3 13.9 26.7 27.5 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 89 11 0 100 27.1 26.2 23.7 -2.3 8.8 13.6 27.9 28.6 29.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 26.9 26.9 25.5 -1.2 25.0 28.6 27.3 27.9 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 80 20 0 100 28.0 27.5 26.3 -1.7 14.8 20.3 28.6 29.3 30.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 85 15 0 100 27.7 26.8 24.3 -2.1 10.4 15.4 28.4 29.3 30.1 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 26.6 27.0 27.6 -0.7 35.4 37.9 26.9 27.6 28.3 29 Palic 37000G16 83 17 0 100 25.8 25.5 23.2 -1.8 15.6 19.9 26.4 27.2 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 26.7 27.1 27.7 -0.9 32.6 35.4 27.1 27.8 28.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 88 12 0 100 21.4 20.7 20.6 -2.2 9.9 14.1 22.1 22.9 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 27.0 26.7 26.5 -1.7 17.3 22.1 27.6 28.3 29.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 27.2 27.7 27.6 -0.5 38.9 40.6 27.4 28.1 28.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 27.0 27.3 27.6 -0.8 33.1 35.8 27.3 28.0 28.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 75 25 0 100 26.4 26.3 25.4 -1.5 20.7 24.8 26.9 27.6 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 27.2 26.9 25.5 -1.6 17.8 22.4 27.7 28.5 29.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 86 14 0 100 27.0 26.4 23.6 -2.1 10.9 15.7 27.6 28.3 28.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 26.8 26.8 26.4 -1.3 23.7 27.6 27.2 27.9 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 85 15 0 100 27.9 27.2 25.0 -2.0 11.4 16.5 28.6 29.4 30.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 86 14 0 100 21.0 20.6 22.2 -1.9 14.0 18.2 21.7 22.5 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 26.9 27.2 27.6 -1.0 30.6 33.7 27.3 28.0 28.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------