***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2018.-01.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 20.7 48.1 44.7 317.0 95.8 85.2 5.2 9.4 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 21.1 36.1 33.0 261.7 91.7 77.5 7.5 11.9 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 19.9 43.2 41.7 322.6 95.4 84.8 6.1 10.3 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 8 92 100 19.3 46.4 48.6 347.4 96.9 89.4 5.4 9.3 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 7 93 100 19.2 70.8 58.7 461.5 99.0 92.5 4.0 7.8 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 4 96 100 13.8 29.3 45.7 261.0 94.1 87.6 2.7 5.4 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 17.5 33.2 32.5 269.0 92.3 78.3 4.9 8.7 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 6 94 100 34.2 89.8 55.6 317.9 96.9 91.1 7.5 14.3 24.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 17.3 50.5 49.2 347.5 97.6 88.6 3.8 7.3 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 23.2 62.3 57.3 329.5 97.4 89.8 5.5 10.3 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 16.9 61.1 54.3 456.0 98.9 92.7 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 6 94 100 19.7 58.0 49.3 372.5 97.9 92.5 4.3 8.3 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 8 92 100 10.1 28.1 57.5 397.9 98.2 92.7 2.8 4.8 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 29.2 55.5 46.8 264.9 92.8 80.4 8.0 14.2 22.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 15.6 42.3 38.0 332.4 95.0 83.0 2.3 5.4 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 11.9 36.8 52.0 387.1 97.9 91.6 2.3 4.8 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 20.0 37.5 27.6 240.1 90.1 75.2 4.4 8.9 15.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 28.1 65.3 54.0 279.7 95.6 87.5 6.7 12.7 20.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 20.9 40.3 34.3 258.5 91.5 78.0 4.8 9.5 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 4 96 100 25.7 60.8 56.9 299.4 97.2 91.1 7.3 12.3 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 20.9 48.4 46.6 343.2 97.1 87.1 6.8 11.1 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 19.1 29.6 26.1 218.7 87.6 72.9 5.4 9.6 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 23.6 43.2 35.8 254.2 91.2 78.6 6.1 11.2 18.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 12 88 100 34.4 68.2 47.2 295.9 95.0 84.7 11.4 18.3 27.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 10 90 100 19.6 51.1 57.5 388.9 97.9 89.1 5.8 9.8 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 12.3 42.7 46.5 403.1 98.3 94.0 2.0 4.4 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 22.4 49.7 47.2 313.7 95.4 85.2 6.0 10.7 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 12.6 30.8 44.9 335.4 96.4 87.5 3.1 5.6 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 9 91 100 37.1 86.5 52.8 283.9 96.0 87.9 9.3 16.8 27.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 23.5 44.3 35.7 277.8 92.8 79.9 7.2 12.2 18.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------