***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2018.-08.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 13.0 23.0 20.1 144.7 76.4 56.2 4.8 9.4 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 5.1 16.9 16.4 128.1 72.6 51.7 4.7 8.6 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 12.6 19.8 19.2 136.5 74.5 55.6 5.4 9.7 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 14.4 16.8 17.7 143.2 75.9 62.9 3.6 7.2 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.9 12.6 16.1 124.5 71.0 56.5 3.5 6.6 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 11.7 13.5 18.4 133.9 73.9 63.3 2.9 5.9 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 5.8 20.6 16.5 122.9 71.3 50.9 6.1 11.0 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 23.7 27.3 18.9 142.7 75.8 63.5 8.3 13.9 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 13.4 18.8 21.9 159.8 79.5 64.8 3.0 6.3 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 22.8 25.9 20.6 140.0 75.1 61.7 6.0 11.5 19.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 11.8 12.5 17.4 128.6 72.1 60.9 3.6 6.5 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 14.4 17.4 16.9 144.8 76.2 63.9 4.7 8.2 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.7 12.0 15.2 129.4 72.9 57.4 3.3 6.1 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.6 26.7 22.1 135.1 74.1 57.9 6.0 11.9 20.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 7.5 10.7 12.3 114.7 69.1 54.7 2.2 5.0 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 13.2 13.9 14.6 128.2 72.5 59.6 4.1 7.4 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.3 15.5 15.7 122.9 71.4 49.9 4.2 7.9 13.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 19.7 22.3 22.8 141.5 75.7 63.3 6.1 10.7 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.2 17.7 16.5 127.5 72.4 53.4 5.4 9.4 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 18.8 19.4 19.4 124.3 71.4 60.6 6.0 10.6 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 20.0 28.6 23.0 165.5 80.5 65.1 4.4 9.4 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.3 16.7 15.1 117.5 70.1 51.9 4.7 9.0 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 6.5 21.7 18.0 131.7 73.4 56.8 6.0 10.7 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 19.5 23.0 22.2 142.9 76.0 61.6 5.9 10.7 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.6 14.4 18.8 128.1 72.5 54.8 4.3 7.6 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.9 11.3 12.4 121.6 69.5 56.3 3.5 6.4 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 5.7 20.5 21.5 140.0 75.3 56.5 5.2 9.6 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.2 14.2 14.2 127.0 72.1 58.6 3.1 6.5 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 27.1 29.8 23.6 134.7 74.1 62.4 7.9 14.5 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 12.6 17.8 17.4 132.5 73.6 53.6 6.5 10.2 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------