***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2018.-15.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 4.0 11.1 9.2 85.1 60.6 43.4 3.5 7.5 13.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.1 10.7 8.5 84.2 60.7 43.0 4.0 7.6 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.4 15.3 10.5 100.0 65.6 47.0 3.5 8.3 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 5.3 23.6 11.0 121.7 71.5 50.9 4.8 10.6 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 5.5 21.4 10.4 115.3 69.9 46.5 5.7 11.0 18.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 4.3 17.3 11.2 103.7 65.9 47.0 4.1 9.4 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.4 8.3 8.5 81.6 59.3 42.2 3.2 6.2 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 11.2 32.4 12.5 114.5 69.0 49.0 11.5 19.5 29.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 5.3 20.4 11.5 113.9 69.3 49.7 5.1 10.3 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 7.1 25.2 13.2 109.0 67.6 48.2 6.9 13.8 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 4.4 18.7 9.6 117.0 69.9 45.7 4.5 9.3 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 6.8 23.0 9.9 116.9 70.0 47.3 7.3 12.9 20.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 4.0 16.5 10.5 119.6 70.8 45.8 4.6 8.6 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 6.8 19.5 14.0 103.1 66.0 49.3 6.3 11.9 19.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.9 12.8 9.3 126.3 72.7 49.5 2.7 5.8 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 4.8 18.1 10.4 126.8 72.5 46.2 5.0 9.2 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 4.1 9.2 7.9 74.7 56.9 40.5 4.0 7.4 12.2 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 7.5 23.4 16.2 114.3 68.9 51.7 7.7 13.6 21.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 4.9 14.7 9.3 93.3 63.6 45.1 5.0 9.5 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 7.7 23.2 17.5 125.9 71.9 54.6 7.3 12.7 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 5.2 16.1 10.9 105.5 67.5 48.3 5.0 9.6 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 5.2 14.6 9.0 84.6 59.9 44.1 5.1 10.2 17.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 4.1 13.5 10.4 101.2 65.6 47.1 4.1 8.1 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 6.5 18.6 13.5 106.4 66.9 49.9 6.4 11.4 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.9 14.4 9.9 87.2 62.2 43.4 4.3 9.1 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.6 11.4 8.1 113.0 69.1 48.1 4.3 7.1 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 5.3 13.9 9.7 82.9 60.2 43.5 4.7 9.7 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 3.1 14.8 10.4 127.5 72.9 49.2 3.0 6.4 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 28.2 27.7 17.6 120.6 70.4 54.4 11.2 17.3 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 4.2 13.6 9.2 90.9 62.7 44.8 3.8 8.3 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------