***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2018.-22.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 2.4 9.1 7.7 73.4 57.2 36.7 3.1 6.9 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 3.5 9.9 6.9 80.1 59.2 36.3 3.7 7.3 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 2.9 8.6 8.0 77.8 58.6 37.5 3.5 6.5 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 3.2 11.7 8.5 87.6 62.1 40.9 2.9 7.1 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 2.7 8.4 7.2 80.9 59.1 37.7 2.6 5.8 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.8 13.8 12.9 117.1 70.5 47.4 2.5 5.9 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 2.4 7.9 7.3 82.9 60.1 35.7 2.6 5.5 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 4.0 13.4 11.4 105.2 66.4 46.3 3.9 7.8 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 1.8 5.3 7.1 70.8 55.5 38.8 1.8 4.2 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 2.5 7.3 10.0 82.5 59.3 41.3 2.4 5.1 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 2.4 8.5 7.7 93.9 63.5 41.0 2.0 4.8 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.1 14.3 9.4 114.9 69.6 46.4 2.8 6.5 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 1.8 9.4 9.9 123.7 72.1 45.7 1.5 3.6 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 3.7 9.7 9.9 73.5 56.1 39.7 3.4 7.5 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.4 10.0 8.8 100.6 66.7 42.1 2.3 5.2 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.1 7.9 8.8 109.8 68.2 43.8 1.8 4.0 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 2.4 6.5 7.4 82.2 60.1 34.6 2.6 4.8 7.7 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.2 9.1 12.8 90.9 61.7 44.1 2.8 5.9 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 3.4 9.7 7.2 79.3 59.0 36.5 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 3.5 11.9 15.5 113.9 68.5 49.6 3.3 6.4 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 1.8 5.7 7.3 75.1 57.0 38.1 2.0 4.3 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 2.6 7.8 8.4 87.4 61.6 35.4 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.2 7.6 7.5 75.2 57.3 37.1 3.2 6.1 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 3.2 7.9 9.6 76.5 57.1 40.8 3.1 6.2 10.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 3.0 10.0 8.8 80.2 59.4 39.1 3.5 7.1 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 1.9 11.3 8.3 140.2 75.5 48.1 1.8 4.1 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 3.0 11.3 8.6 76.5 58.5 38.2 3.3 7.9 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.1 11.6 9.0 95.0 64.7 41.9 2.8 6.3 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 5.3 14.6 14.2 99.1 63.9 46.6 5.1 9.5 15.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 2.9 8.7 7.7 84.7 60.8 38.2 3.2 6.1 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------