***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.06.2018.-22.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 73.5 97.1 81.8 165.7 85.5 74.3 34.5 48.5 64.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 64.6 74.4 64.9 146.9 79.1 68.0 34.3 46.2 59.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 69.8 89.5 79.4 166.2 85.2 74.0 35.9 48.4 62.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 82.3 118.1 85.8 190.0 89.5 80.8 33.2 48.6 67.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 10 90 100 72.8 114.5 92.3 212.2 93.3 84.7 32.5 45.5 60.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 65.3 89.5 88.2 167.0 86.4 78.3 28.1 40.9 56.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 60.6 70.6 64.8 144.8 78.7 67.6 31.0 42.6 55.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 108.4 145.3 98.4 188.1 91.0 83.6 58.8 75.5 93.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 12 88 100 67.9 94.4 89.8 187.2 89.9 80.7 31.5 43.4 57.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 90.0 124.0 101.1 180.3 89.6 80.7 43.0 58.7 76.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 8 92 100 65.7 103.0 89.0 209.9 93.4 85.4 29.0 40.5 54.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 10 90 100 79.2 121.9 85.4 205.1 92.4 85.2 34.4 48.7 65.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 51.9 84.5 93.0 216.7 93.4 85.2 21.7 31.5 42.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 93.1 111.2 92.8 152.4 82.0 72.0 49.1 65.6 84.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 55.6 80.8 68.4 178.8 86.1 75.9 17.4 29.3 45.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 55.5 86.4 85.9 208.0 92.4 84.0 23.6 33.6 45.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 56.5 60.7 58.6 133.6 74.7 63.3 30.9 41.0 52.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 82.4 104.7 105.8 166.4 87.0 78.3 47.0 60.1 74.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 69.5 81.7 67.3 148.6 79.7 68.5 35.1 48.3 63.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 14 86 100 79.3 105.2 109.3 175.2 90.3 82.8 44.4 56.5 69.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 12 88 100 73.6 100.5 87.8 184.8 89.2 79.2 33.7 46.9 61.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 54.2 69.2 58.7 130.0 73.3 62.2 36.5 48.4 61.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 69.0 78.6 71.6 149.4 80.1 69.1 40.0 51.4 63.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 85.0 108.2 92.5 163.6 85.3 75.2 46.2 61.0 77.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 72.7 100.2 95.1 184.2 89.2 78.6 33.0 46.1 61.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 10 90 100 49.4 81.0 75.3 215.4 93.6 86.6 20.6 29.5 40.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 82.2 105.8 86.9 163.1 85.0 73.7 39.4 54.9 72.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 61.7 88.7 78.5 185.4 88.3 79.2 22.8 35.2 50.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 105.8 134.3 108.2 166.4 87.7 79.2 61.5 77.8 95.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 69.4 82.2 70.0 154.9 81.9 70.5 38.4 50.4 63.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------