***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.06.2017.-02.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 16.5 19.4 20.8 4.0 99.1 96.5 14.3 15.1 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 16.7 19.5 20.0 3.3 97.4 92.8 13.9 14.9 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 2 98 100 18.5 21.5 20.6 3.5 98.3 94.7 15.9 16.8 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 14.0 18.1 18.3 3.7 99.2 96.1 11.0 12.1 13.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 3 97 100 15.1 17.6 18.5 3.3 97.8 94.7 12.7 13.6 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 4 96 100 13.9 15.7 15.3 2.7 95.7 91.7 11.6 12.4 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 3 97 100 16.6 19.4 20.3 3.6 98.3 94.2 14.3 15.1 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 7 93 100 9.3 10.8 14.8 2.3 92.1 88.2 6.9 7.8 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 16.2 18.3 18.3 3.0 96.8 93.7 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 15.9 17.3 15.9 2.4 92.9 88.9 13.7 14.6 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 6 94 100 15.9 17.8 17.5 2.7 95.5 91.8 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 14.0 16.1 16.5 2.9 96.1 92.8 11.5 12.5 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 9 91 100 15.3 17.0 16.2 2.5 94.3 90.0 13.0 13.8 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 16.9 18.5 17.6 2.5 93.0 89.1 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 17.1 20.8 20.4 4.1 99.8 98.3 14.9 15.7 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 16.3 18.7 17.2 2.9 96.7 92.9 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 5 95 100 17.1 19.4 19.6 3.2 96.9 91.8 14.7 15.6 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 6 94 100 14.7 16.2 15.3 2.3 92.3 88.4 12.3 13.2 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 16.5 19.0 20.1 3.3 97.4 92.9 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 5 95 100 10.7 12.0 13.3 2.3 91.9 88.0 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 4 96 100 16.1 18.6 19.6 3.2 97.8 94.4 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 6 94 100 16.0 18.0 19.5 2.9 95.4 90.2 13.6 14.5 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 16.1 18.8 20.1 3.4 97.6 93.6 13.5 14.5 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 7 93 100 16.5 18.5 17.7 2.6 93.9 90.0 13.8 14.8 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 3 97 100 16.0 19.1 19.8 3.9 98.9 95.9 13.7 14.5 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 15.0 17.5 16.0 3.3 97.9 94.8 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 2 98 100 16.3 20.2 20.4 4.2 99.2 96.7 13.5 14.5 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 1 99 100 15.0 18.1 18.9 3.8 99.2 96.6 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 13 87 100 13.4 14.4 14.1 1.9 87.6 84.2 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 16.9 19.7 20.5 3.6 98.1 94.1 14.4 15.3 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------