***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.07.2017.-23.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 16.1 16.6 18.9 0.8 64.8 60.1 14.6 15.7 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 16.0 16.4 18.7 0.7 63.9 59.4 14.4 15.5 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 19.0 18.8 19.1 0.8 65.7 60.9 16.5 17.7 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 15.0 15.0 16.8 1.0 69.0 63.1 12.0 13.4 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 14.1 14.6 16.4 0.7 64.3 59.8 12.4 13.6 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.1 13.3 14.5 0.5 61.9 58.0 11.8 12.7 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.9 18.9 0.8 64.1 59.6 14.8 15.9 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.8 9.1 14.1 0.6 61.7 57.9 7.2 8.3 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.9 16.5 0.7 63.1 58.9 14.0 15.1 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.5 14.9 0.5 61.0 57.4 13.9 14.9 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 15.7 15.6 16.0 0.8 66.8 61.5 13.6 14.6 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 13.7 13.4 14.9 0.7 63.6 59.3 11.7 12.7 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.2 14.1 14.0 0.3 55.7 53.9 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.1 16.1 0.3 57.1 54.8 14.6 15.6 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 17.4 17.5 18.2 1.1 71.4 64.9 15.4 16.3 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 16.5 16.2 15.4 0.7 65.2 60.5 14.1 15.2 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 17.1 17.4 18.4 0.6 62.0 57.9 15.7 16.7 17.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.6 13.8 0.3 57.2 55.0 12.1 13.2 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 16.0 16.5 18.8 0.8 65.8 60.9 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.4 9.2 11.4 0.1 53.2 51.9 8.0 9.0 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 15.3 15.6 17.8 0.6 61.8 57.9 13.8 14.9 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 15.6 16.0 18.3 0.7 62.8 58.8 14.2 15.2 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 15.9 15.9 18.7 0.9 67.9 62.8 13.9 14.9 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 15.8 16.0 16.0 0.5 60.0 57.0 14.4 15.5 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.7 17.3 0.6 61.4 57.5 13.7 14.9 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.5 14.1 0.6 62.3 58.2 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 15.8 16.3 18.0 0.7 63.3 58.9 13.8 15.2 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 15.0 15.0 17.1 1.0 69.7 63.6 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.2 13.0 13.1 0.2 54.4 52.9 11.6 12.8 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.4 17.0 19.0 0.8 65.0 60.3 14.8 16.0 17.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------