***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.06.2017.-23.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 16.2 16.9 19.1 1.7 90.8 82.9 15.0 15.5 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 16.3 16.9 18.7 1.4 86.0 77.8 14.5 15.2 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 18.2 18.9 19.2 1.5 88.1 80.4 16.6 17.3 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 13.5 14.6 16.9 1.6 92.2 84.5 12.0 12.6 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 15 85 100 14.8 15.5 16.7 1.3 88.0 80.6 13.2 13.9 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 13.5 13.9 14.3 1.0 83.9 77.4 12.3 12.8 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 16.4 17.1 19.0 1.5 87.8 79.9 14.9 15.5 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 8.8 9.1 14.0 0.9 80.3 73.8 7.6 8.1 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 15.9 16.6 16.8 1.2 87.5 80.1 14.5 15.1 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 15.6 16.0 14.9 0.9 80.9 74.1 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 15.5 16.2 16.2 1.2 87.3 79.8 14.2 14.7 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 13.5 14.1 15.1 1.2 86.3 79.4 12.2 12.7 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 14.8 15.1 14.5 0.8 78.3 73.3 13.5 14.1 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 16.4 16.6 16.2 0.8 76.1 70.2 15.1 15.6 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 17.1 18.5 18.6 1.9 96.3 89.9 15.7 16.3 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 16.1 16.7 15.6 1.2 86.4 80.1 14.6 15.2 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 16.9 17.4 18.4 1.2 84.5 76.1 15.4 16.0 16.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 14.1 14.3 13.9 0.7 75.8 70.2 12.7 13.4 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 16.2 16.8 18.8 1.4 87.0 78.8 14.7 15.3 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 9.9 10.0 11.7 0.6 72.1 67.3 8.7 9.3 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 15.8 16.4 18.1 1.3 86.4 78.7 14.3 14.9 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 15.7 16.2 18.3 1.1 81.8 73.9 14.4 14.9 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 11 89 100 15.6 16.3 18.7 1.5 89.1 81.1 14.2 14.7 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 16.2 16.6 16.2 0.9 79.7 73.3 14.6 15.3 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 15.8 16.6 17.7 1.5 88.9 80.7 14.4 14.9 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 14.6 15.2 14.4 1.2 88.6 82.0 13.4 13.9 14.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 16.0 17.1 18.4 1.6 91.1 83.0 14.2 14.9 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 14.8 16.0 17.4 1.7 93.5 86.6 13.4 14.0 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 12.9 12.9 13.1 0.5 69.5 65.1 11.7 12.3 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 16.6 17.3 19.1 1.5 87.6 79.8 15.0 15.6 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------