***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.06.2017.-02.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 29.9 33.1 31.9 4.6 97.1 90.2 26.8 28.0 29.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 29.4 31.6 31.6 4.1 93.8 85.8 26.8 27.9 28.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 29.6 32.2 31.8 4.4 95.1 87.7 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 22.7 27.1 29.8 5.3 98.8 93.3 19.3 20.6 21.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 12 88 100 30.3 33.7 30.2 4.5 96.4 89.4 27.0 28.3 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 28.9 32.1 27.3 4.2 96.4 89.6 25.6 26.8 28.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 29.3 31.6 31.4 4.1 94.5 87.0 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 18.1 20.5 27.1 3.7 92.5 84.4 14.9 16.2 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 29.9 33.4 31.2 4.8 97.2 90.3 26.5 27.8 29.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 29.4 32.0 28.5 4.0 93.5 86.0 26.1 27.5 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 30.0 33.7 30.6 4.7 96.8 90.2 26.4 27.8 29.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 28.9 32.2 29.0 4.4 96.2 88.8 25.6 26.9 28.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 30.2 33.6 29.7 4.4 96.6 89.6 26.8 28.1 29.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 29.0 30.4 29.2 3.2 87.6 79.8 26.5 27.6 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 30.7 36.3 32.9 5.9 99.8 96.2 27.5 28.6 29.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 9 91 100 30.9 34.9 30.0 4.7 97.5 90.8 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 28.8 30.8 31.0 3.9 93.0 84.9 26.1 27.2 28.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 28.6 30.2 26.7 3.1 87.6 79.9 25.5 26.8 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 29.0 31.2 31.7 4.3 94.2 86.4 26.4 27.4 28.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 24.4 25.4 23.9 2.4 82.5 74.9 21.2 22.5 23.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 29.8 32.7 31.6 4.3 95.5 87.7 26.7 27.9 29.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 29.2 30.7 30.3 3.3 89.3 80.6 26.7 27.7 28.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 11 89 100 29.3 32.0 32.0 4.8 95.9 89.0 26.5 27.6 28.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 28.8 30.8 29.5 3.6 90.6 82.7 26.0 27.2 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 29.7 32.9 30.6 4.5 96.8 89.5 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 29.7 32.9 28.3 4.4 96.2 89.4 26.4 27.7 28.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 29.3 32.2 31.0 4.4 96.8 89.5 26.4 27.5 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 5 95 100 30.7 35.0 31.0 5.4 99.0 94.1 27.6 28.8 29.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 23.7 25.1 25.6 2.8 84.8 77.3 20.8 22.1 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 29.3 31.7 31.8 4.3 95.0 87.3 26.5 27.6 28.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------