***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.07.2017.-09.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 29.9 29.7 29.6 1.3 66.7 62.9 27.7 28.7 29.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 28.6 29.4 29.6 1.4 67.0 63.4 27.1 28.2 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 29.6 29.4 29.6 1.2 64.7 61.4 27.1 28.3 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 23.3 23.3 27.7 1.5 70.0 65.6 20.0 21.5 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 29.6 29.9 27.8 0.8 60.7 58.9 27.7 29.0 30.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 28.1 28.2 25.0 0.5 57.8 56.7 26.1 27.5 28.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 29.2 29.2 29.5 1.3 66.9 63.3 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 17.3 17.4 25.5 0.6 58.4 57.2 15.3 16.7 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 29.9 29.6 28.5 1.1 64.4 61.7 27.2 28.5 29.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 28.8 29.0 26.5 0.8 59.8 58.1 27.0 28.3 29.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 30.1 29.6 28.0 1.0 62.9 61.0 27.3 28.6 29.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 29.2 28.7 27.0 1.0 62.8 60.9 26.4 27.7 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 29.4 29.5 26.8 0.6 58.0 57.2 27.4 28.8 30.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 28.4 28.2 27.0 0.3 53.4 52.4 26.9 28.0 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 31.3 31.8 30.0 2.0 77.2 71.8 28.2 29.6 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 31.1 30.6 27.5 1.0 63.3 61.3 28.0 29.5 30.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 28.7 28.7 29.2 1.4 67.6 63.9 26.4 27.5 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 27.9 27.6 25.1 0.2 53.0 52.5 26.1 27.4 28.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 29.1 29.1 29.7 1.4 67.8 63.8 26.7 27.8 29.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 23.6 22.9 22.7 -0.1 49.2 49.9 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 29.1 29.3 29.0 0.8 60.7 58.6 27.2 28.5 29.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 28.6 29.1 28.7 1.1 63.3 60.5 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 29.3 29.4 29.7 1.6 69.5 64.9 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 28.2 28.1 27.3 0.5 56.6 54.9 26.6 27.7 28.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 30.0 29.5 28.0 0.9 62.4 59.8 27.2 28.5 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 29.9 29.4 26.5 0.9 62.5 60.6 27.0 28.4 29.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 29.3 29.0 28.7 1.1 64.9 61.5 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 31.3 31.4 28.5 1.6 71.4 67.3 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 23.2 22.5 23.9 -0.1 49.0 49.4 21.3 22.6 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 29.2 29.2 29.7 1.4 66.8 63.2 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------