***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.07.2017.-23.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 31.0 30.9 30.9 1.6 68.9 64.2 27.7 29.2 30.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 30.7 30.8 30.8 1.6 69.3 64.4 27.6 29.1 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 31.2 30.9 31.1 1.5 67.9 63.5 27.7 29.2 30.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 24.3 24.5 29.5 1.8 72.2 66.1 21.1 22.5 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 31.9 31.4 29.3 1.3 66.5 62.3 28.4 30.0 31.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 26.9 29.3 26.4 0.9 62.3 58.4 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 30.6 30.7 30.7 1.6 69.2 64.1 27.6 29.1 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 19.1 18.6 27.2 1.1 63.5 60.2 16.2 17.5 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 31.2 30.8 29.5 1.4 67.1 62.7 27.8 29.3 30.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 30.8 30.3 27.9 1.2 64.6 61.1 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 31.3 31.0 29.0 1.5 67.5 63.0 28.0 29.5 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 30.2 29.8 28.6 1.2 64.8 61.1 27.1 28.5 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 30.4 30.6 27.5 0.8 59.4 56.9 28.4 29.8 31.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 27.2 29.8 28.1 0.8 59.7 57.5 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 32.1 32.5 30.5 2.0 76.0 68.9 29.1 30.4 31.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 32.2 31.9 28.7 1.3 66.1 61.8 29.1 30.5 31.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 29.0 30.1 30.5 1.5 68.6 63.7 27.1 28.5 29.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 28.8 29.0 26.9 0.8 59.9 57.9 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 30.4 30.4 30.9 1.6 69.5 64.5 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 24.5 24.3 24.2 0.5 55.6 54.7 22.4 23.9 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 31.1 30.6 30.2 1.2 64.9 61.3 27.9 29.3 30.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 29.5 30.5 30.1 1.3 66.4 62.1 27.5 29.0 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 30.6 30.6 30.8 1.6 69.3 64.4 27.4 28.9 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 30.3 29.7 28.5 1.0 62.1 59.3 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 31.4 31.1 29.2 1.4 67.1 62.8 28.1 29.6 31.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 30.9 30.7 28.3 1.3 66.5 61.9 28.2 29.5 30.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 30.7 30.5 29.9 1.5 68.5 63.7 27.4 28.9 30.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 31.9 32.1 29.7 1.8 72.2 65.9 29.1 30.4 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 21.9 24.0 25.5 0.5 56.1 55.2 22.1 23.5 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 30.6 30.7 30.9 1.6 69.4 64.5 27.4 29.0 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------