***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.06.2017.-02.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 15.3 15.7 11.5 84.4 58.6 47.9 8.2 12.9 18.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 15.1 17.3 11.6 98.7 63.6 52.7 7.6 12.4 18.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.7 13.8 10.3 81.6 58.3 46.6 6.9 11.2 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.8 12.6 10.8 88.4 60.3 48.9 4.8 9.1 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.4 9.7 81.4 58.5 47.2 3.7 7.6 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.0 8.7 10.1 78.9 55.4 44.6 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 10.7 11.5 11.0 89.3 60.0 51.0 5.0 8.7 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 22.4 18.5 11.6 73.8 53.1 45.5 8.5 16.5 27.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.0 9.6 10.4 79.5 57.2 48.1 4.0 7.6 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 14.1 12.3 12.0 75.3 54.5 46.4 5.4 10.6 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.3 9.4 84.5 58.8 47.9 3.8 7.5 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 5.5 10.8 9.0 74.2 54.3 45.3 5.0 9.4 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 2.9 6.8 8.5 71.0 53.9 41.2 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 20.0 25.3 15.7 108.0 67.0 54.8 8.6 15.4 24.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 8.7 9.4 8.2 85.7 60.8 46.2 2.3 5.8 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.1 7.5 8.9 78.1 56.9 45.3 2.7 5.8 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 14.9 17.6 11.3 99.2 64.1 53.3 5.4 10.8 18.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 17.0 17.3 14.6 86.8 58.6 50.2 7.5 13.4 21.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 13.8 16.0 12.0 99.0 63.8 52.4 5.6 10.5 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 14.9 13.2 13.6 80.7 54.1 47.8 6.6 11.7 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 15.3 16.1 10.6 87.7 60.2 48.7 7.0 12.2 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.9 21.3 13.1 117.1 69.7 55.9 7.1 12.4 19.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 13.4 14.4 11.7 89.6 60.8 50.3 5.6 10.3 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 21.9 23.4 12.7 88.9 60.7 50.1 10.9 17.9 26.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 13.1 14.1 12.2 91.5 61.7 48.5 6.4 10.5 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.3 8.6 8.0 86.9 60.4 48.5 3.1 6.1 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.9 12.4 87.2 59.5 48.1 7.9 13.1 20.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 8.0 8.2 9.6 83.5 59.1 45.9 3.1 6.0 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 23.1 24.4 14.8 89.8 59.4 51.0 10.0 18.4 29.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.8 17.8 11.1 90.3 60.4 49.4 8.2 13.6 20.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------