***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.07.2017.-16.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 3.6 9.2 8.2 81.2 60.3 39.5 3.6 6.7 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 4.1 9.7 7.3 81.1 60.0 43.6 4.2 7.3 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 3.4 12.3 9.0 88.2 62.7 41.1 3.9 7.8 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 3.5 10.4 6.5 63.3 54.0 35.8 3.5 8.6 17.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 4.4 12.7 7.0 73.6 57.7 35.9 5.4 10.0 16.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 3.3 11.4 7.4 66.0 54.5 34.0 4.1 9.4 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 2.5 7.2 7.4 85.3 61.0 43.6 2.7 5.1 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 8.9 28.9 10.5 98.4 65.3 38.8 10.6 18.7 29.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 3.9 12.2 8.4 80.5 60.0 36.7 4.7 8.8 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 6.1 20.6 11.0 93.5 63.9 39.2 7.2 13.3 21.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 3.3 11.1 6.8 74.6 57.9 35.6 3.9 8.3 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 6.2 17.2 7.5 85.0 61.0 36.1 7.3 12.7 19.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 4.3 11.5 6.9 77.4 59.2 35.6 4.8 8.8 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 5.0 16.0 12.3 89.4 62.3 41.5 5.4 10.6 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 2.4 5.8 4.7 55.3 51.1 33.5 2.5 5.5 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 4.0 10.5 6.1 68.2 56.1 34.7 4.5 8.7 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 3.9 10.6 7.6 84.0 60.8 42.0 4.1 7.5 12.3 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 7.0 21.6 14.4 106.8 67.3 41.3 7.4 13.1 20.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 4.7 12.1 7.8 84.2 61.3 44.0 4.8 8.7 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 7.0 19.5 14.6 114.4 69.4 43.4 7.5 12.1 17.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 4.1 11.3 8.5 83.3 61.4 37.8 4.8 8.3 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 5.3 14.8 8.5 85.6 61.8 42.6 5.2 10.1 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 3.7 11.8 9.3 92.7 64.3 44.1 4.2 7.6 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 6.4 16.6 12.6 101.8 66.2 42.3 6.9 11.2 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 3.9 11.6 8.3 77.2 59.1 39.4 3.9 8.3 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 3.3 9.5 7.2 96.1 65.4 36.4 3.8 6.4 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 4.6 12.5 8.6 81.0 60.5 41.6 4.3 8.7 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.8 7.4 5.8 61.0 53.6 34.2 2.8 6.3 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 14.2 27.9 15.1 108.9 67.7 43.1 15.3 20.9 27.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 3.7 10.7 7.8 82.5 60.7 44.0 3.4 7.4 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------