***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.07.2017.-23.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 3.3 8.5 6.0 68.0 55.7 39.5 3.0 6.8 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 3.0 7.0 5.9 71.0 55.2 40.2 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.2 8.0 6.4 73.8 57.4 40.9 3.0 6.1 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 4.0 15.4 7.4 101.7 66.7 44.1 3.6 8.0 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.8 11.0 7.2 101.5 66.7 43.5 2.5 5.7 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 2.5 9.9 7.6 86.1 62.2 43.0 2.5 5.9 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 8.1 6.7 5.9 69.8 55.0 41.2 2.6 5.7 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 4.3 12.4 8.8 100.1 65.6 43.8 4.5 8.0 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.2 7.5 7.1 87.0 62.5 41.6 2.0 4.5 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 3.4 10.4 8.9 93.1 63.7 43.3 3.4 6.6 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 2.7 9.8 6.8 98.5 65.4 43.0 2.4 5.5 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 2.8 10.7 6.4 91.0 63.1 42.0 2.7 6.3 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 1.7 6.1 5.9 82.9 60.3 41.0 1.5 3.8 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 4.5 13.0 10.3 85.9 61.1 44.6 3.9 8.5 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.4 11.1 6.8 115.6 70.1 45.0 2.3 5.2 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.1 6.5 6.0 86.0 61.8 41.4 1.9 4.2 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.1 6.1 5.8 69.1 54.1 39.9 3.1 5.4 8.4 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 3.4 9.9 10.3 90.1 62.6 45.1 3.3 6.5 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.4 8.9 6.4 75.1 57.3 41.4 3.2 6.7 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 3.1 11.0 11.9 108.7 67.5 48.8 2.9 6.1 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 2.4 7.0 6.4 76.8 59.2 40.1 2.4 5.0 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.9 6.5 6.6 70.7 55.1 41.3 2.6 5.4 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.2 7.7 7.3 78.1 58.9 42.2 3.1 5.8 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 3.4 9.9 8.6 82.6 60.4 44.2 3.2 6.8 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.2 8.7 6.6 75.6 58.9 41.6 2.9 6.3 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 2.0 8.0 5.2 93.9 63.7 39.2 1.8 4.5 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 4.5 11.3 6.5 69.1 56.1 40.3 3.6 9.0 17.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 2.8 12.3 7.3 107.6 68.3 44.4 2.7 6.0 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 4.2 13.0 11.8 99.9 65.1 46.4 4.1 7.9 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.8 8.0 5.9 69.8 55.3 41.0 3.4 6.7 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------