***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.06.2017.-23.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 34.1 48.3 36.9 82.5 49.3 43.7 34.4 48.8 65.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 31.8 46.6 36.2 89.0 52.6 45.7 32.6 44.8 58.4 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 33.0 48.1 36.8 84.0 49.7 43.2 35.4 48.5 63.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 33.4 52.1 34.1 86.1 52.6 45.4 33.7 49.5 68.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 31.0 48.2 34.2 88.3 53.6 44.9 32.3 45.3 59.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 26.9 38.5 34.8 78.2 45.9 40.4 28.4 41.9 57.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 28.0 39.5 34.8 83.7 48.6 43.1 28.4 40.4 54.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 56.8 77.6 41.2 88.3 51.6 42.9 59.2 75.8 94.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 29.7 43.8 35.8 84.5 50.7 42.7 31.3 43.0 56.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 41.2 59.1 43.2 86.5 50.6 42.1 42.6 58.3 76.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 27.2 41.5 32.9 83.9 50.5 42.3 29.4 41.2 55.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 32.6 48.7 31.8 84.4 50.5 42.2 34.0 48.4 64.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 19.2 32.0 31.7 84.8 52.4 43.1 20.4 30.5 42.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 47.9 72.5 52.4 94.6 55.4 47.3 49.6 66.6 85.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 35.9 31.3 28.7 86.4 53.9 46.3 15.7 28.0 44.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 20.3 33.6 31.2 84.2 51.9 42.9 22.1 32.5 44.9 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 29.2 42.2 37.1 90.7 53.1 45.3 29.2 40.1 52.3 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 45.6 62.1 51.3 92.0 53.3 43.6 47.0 59.6 73.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 34.4 52.0 37.9 91.3 54.5 47.0 35.0 48.1 63.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 39.7 58.9 52.6 97.9 56.7 46.2 41.1 53.6 67.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 31.0 47.3 35.4 84.0 50.8 43.5 33.0 46.5 62.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 37.1 54.9 40.7 96.1 57.1 48.9 37.4 49.4 62.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 37.0 52.3 40.9 91.9 54.8 47.4 37.9 48.9 61.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 43.8 63.2 46.2 91.3 53.3 44.7 45.3 60.1 76.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 31.2 47.8 39.9 86.9 52.1 45.9 32.7 45.8 61.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 20.4 32.1 27.5 87.7 53.7 43.7 20.8 30.0 40.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 38.2 55.5 40.0 83.7 49.5 44.2 40.1 56.0 74.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 23.4 38.5 31.8 87.1 54.0 45.8 22.8 35.2 50.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 59.5 83.0 54.9 95.5 55.2 45.4 61.9 77.8 94.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 36.7 49.8 35.8 84.3 49.8 43.7 37.2 50.1 64.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------