***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.07.2016.-17.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 14.4 15.2 18.2 -0.2 45.9 47.0 14.5 15.4 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.5 18.2 0.2 53.3 51.9 14.2 15.3 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 17.7 17.2 18.6 -0.1 47.9 48.4 16.4 17.3 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 13.1 12.7 16.4 0.0 50.8 50.8 11.7 12.7 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.5 14.1 16.3 0.0 49.1 49.7 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.2 13.0 14.5 0.1 53.1 53.0 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.1 15.7 18.2 -0.1 48.2 48.2 14.9 15.8 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 8.6 8.4 14.3 0.1 52.6 52.5 7.5 8.3 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.3 16.5 0.1 51.5 51.3 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 15.5 15.3 15.1 0.1 52.9 52.5 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.1 16.0 0.1 52.4 52.1 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 13.2 13.1 15.1 0.1 53.3 52.8 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.4 14.4 0.1 53.4 53.1 13.5 14.2 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.2 16.5 0.3 56.6 54.9 15.1 15.9 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 16.9 16.8 17.9 0.2 54.1 53.1 15.9 16.6 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.6 15.4 0.2 53.7 53.1 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.6 16.6 18.2 0.4 58.1 55.2 15.3 16.2 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.9 13.7 14.5 0.1 53.4 52.9 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.7 18.4 0.3 55.4 53.6 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.6 9.4 12.0 0.1 52.5 52.7 8.6 9.3 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.0 17.7 -0.2 46.7 47.6 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.7 18.3 0.5 60.5 57.1 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.3 18.4 0.4 57.6 55.5 14.1 14.9 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 15.8 15.7 16.3 0.1 53.5 52.8 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.1 16.9 -0.1 48.8 49.4 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 14.2 14.2 14.4 0.3 57.3 55.5 13.3 14.0 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.4 14.9 17.6 0.0 49.1 49.5 14.0 15.0 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.4 16.9 0.1 52.1 51.6 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.5 12.3 13.7 0.1 52.0 51.9 11.4 12.2 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.2 15.7 18.3 -0.1 48.7 48.6 14.9 15.8 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------