***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.07.2016.-24.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 16.2 15.9 18.7 0.1 51.3 49.7 14.7 15.8 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 16.1 16.1 18.6 0.3 57.3 54.2 14.6 15.7 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.4 18.1 19.1 0.2 54.1 52.1 16.7 17.9 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 14.1 13.8 16.7 0.1 52.2 51.1 12.3 13.7 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.2 13.7 16.6 0.0 50.2 49.7 12.6 13.7 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.1 13.2 15.0 0.4 59.8 57.1 11.8 12.7 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.2 18.7 0.1 53.0 50.9 15.0 16.1 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 9.0 9.2 14.7 0.4 60.1 57.4 7.5 8.6 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 15.7 15.4 16.7 0.1 52.5 51.2 14.2 15.2 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.3 15.4 0.3 57.3 55.1 14.0 15.0 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.0 14.9 16.3 0.2 55.7 54.4 13.6 14.6 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.1 13.2 15.5 0.3 58.2 56.1 11.8 12.7 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.1 13.9 14.6 0.1 52.3 51.6 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.5 16.8 0.5 61.2 57.8 14.8 15.8 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 16.7 16.6 18.3 0.2 55.8 53.9 15.4 16.3 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.6 15.7 0.2 54.0 53.0 14.2 15.3 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 17.2 17.5 18.7 0.6 62.9 58.2 15.8 16.8 17.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.7 13.7 14.7 0.3 57.5 55.1 12.2 13.3 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 16.1 16.3 18.8 0.4 59.6 56.1 14.8 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.4 9.6 12.3 0.4 60.3 57.3 8.2 9.0 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.0 18.0 0.0 51.1 50.0 13.9 15.0 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 15.6 16.2 18.8 0.7 65.3 60.2 14.3 15.3 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.8 18.9 0.6 63.1 58.9 14.1 15.1 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 15.9 16.0 16.6 0.3 57.8 55.3 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.2 17.3 0.1 52.8 51.0 13.8 15.0 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 14.2 14.3 14.6 0.4 59.1 56.0 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 15.9 15.6 18.0 0.2 53.4 51.2 13.9 15.4 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.0 17.2 0.2 53.9 52.5 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.5 14.0 0.3 57.6 55.4 11.9 13.0 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.6 16.3 18.7 0.1 53.2 51.1 15.0 16.1 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------