***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.06.2016.-24.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.9 18.6 0.4 62.7 60.1 15.1 15.6 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 16.1 16.2 18.6 0.6 70.7 67.1 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 17.5 17.8 18.9 0.4 63.6 61.2 16.7 17.3 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 13.4 13.6 16.7 0.6 71.3 67.2 12.1 12.8 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 14.6 14.6 16.9 0.5 68.3 64.5 13.3 13.9 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 13.5 13.7 14.8 0.7 78.2 72.6 12.3 12.8 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 15.8 16.1 18.6 0.4 63.2 60.9 15.0 15.6 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 8.9 9.1 14.6 0.7 76.9 71.4 7.7 8.2 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 15.8 15.9 17.0 0.6 72.1 67.5 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 15.7 15.8 15.5 0.7 75.8 70.6 14.4 15.0 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 15.6 15.7 16.7 0.7 76.4 71.2 14.2 14.8 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 13.5 13.7 15.6 0.7 76.6 71.3 12.2 12.8 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 14.8 15.1 15.3 0.8 78.8 73.5 13.5 14.1 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 16.5 16.6 16.9 0.7 75.5 71.1 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 17.0 17.3 18.6 0.8 79.4 73.9 15.8 16.3 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 16.1 16.3 16.1 0.7 76.4 71.3 14.7 15.3 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 16.9 17.1 18.6 0.9 77.8 72.8 15.5 16.1 16.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 14.2 14.3 14.8 0.6 73.6 69.1 12.8 13.4 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 16.1 16.2 18.7 0.7 73.3 69.4 14.8 15.3 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 10.0 10.2 12.6 0.7 76.4 71.1 8.7 9.3 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 15.1 15.5 18.2 0.4 64.5 61.4 14.4 14.9 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 15.8 16.2 18.7 1.0 80.8 75.5 14.4 15.0 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 15.6 15.8 18.8 0.9 77.8 73.2 14.3 14.8 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 16.2 16.2 16.8 0.6 71.5 67.6 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 15.7 15.6 17.6 0.5 67.6 63.7 14.4 15.0 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 14.5 14.8 14.7 0.7 78.0 72.2 13.4 13.9 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 15.7 15.7 18.1 0.5 67.0 63.2 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 14.7 14.9 17.3 0.7 74.5 69.8 13.4 14.0 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 13.0 13.1 14.1 0.6 73.4 69.1 11.8 12.4 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 15.9 16.2 18.7 0.4 64.1 61.7 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------