***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.07.2016.-10.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 29.0 28.1 28.7 -0.5 42.3 44.5 27.5 28.5 29.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 28.5 28.0 29.2 -0.1 48.8 49.6 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 28.6 27.6 29.0 -0.6 42.5 44.6 26.9 28.1 29.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 21.9 21.2 26.9 -0.1 48.5 49.2 19.9 21.3 22.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 29.4 28.4 27.5 -0.4 44.4 46.0 27.5 28.8 30.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 28.0 27.1 25.1 -0.2 47.3 48.5 25.9 27.4 28.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 28.3 27.5 28.9 -0.4 44.7 46.3 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 17.1 16.0 25.4 -0.4 43.5 45.3 15.1 16.5 17.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 26.9 28.0 28.0 -0.3 45.4 46.6 27.1 28.3 29.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 28.7 27.7 26.2 -0.4 44.4 45.9 26.9 28.1 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 28.9 28.2 27.8 -0.2 47.4 48.3 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 28.1 27.4 26.9 -0.2 47.5 48.3 26.3 27.6 28.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 29.3 28.6 27.0 0.0 49.4 49.9 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 28.3 27.8 27.6 0.0 49.8 50.3 26.8 27.9 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 29.9 29.6 29.2 0.2 53.0 52.8 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 29.8 29.1 27.3 -0.1 48.5 49.2 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 27.9 27.9 29.3 0.5 57.1 56.0 26.3 27.5 28.5 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 25.8 26.7 25.3 -0.5 43.4 45.2 26.0 27.2 28.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 28.1 27.8 29.4 0.1 51.3 51.5 26.5 27.7 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 23.4 22.1 23.1 -0.6 41.9 44.2 21.3 22.8 24.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 28.9 27.7 28.7 -0.6 42.0 44.1 27.1 28.3 29.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 28.5 28.9 29.6 1.0 63.1 60.3 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 28.3 28.3 29.6 0.5 56.2 55.2 26.8 27.9 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 28.0 27.3 27.4 -0.3 45.5 47.1 26.4 27.5 28.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 28.9 28.0 27.6 -0.4 44.2 46.1 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 26.6 28.4 26.6 0.1 52.2 51.6 26.9 28.2 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 28.3 27.5 28.1 -0.3 45.2 47.0 26.7 27.8 28.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 30.0 29.4 27.9 -0.1 49.2 49.8 28.1 29.5 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 23.1 21.9 24.4 -0.6 42.3 44.5 21.2 22.5 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 28.3 27.5 28.9 -0.5 43.4 45.3 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------