***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.07.2016.-24.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 30.0 29.0 29.4 -0.3 45.6 46.6 27.8 29.4 30.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 29.9 29.5 29.9 0.2 52.7 51.8 27.8 29.3 30.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 30.0 29.3 30.0 0.0 49.4 49.5 27.8 29.4 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 23.3 22.9 28.3 0.1 51.4 51.0 21.4 22.8 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 30.8 30.2 28.4 0.1 50.8 50.5 28.7 30.2 31.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 29.2 29.3 26.3 0.5 58.7 56.2 27.4 28.7 29.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 27.3 29.0 29.5 -0.1 48.0 48.2 27.7 29.2 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 18.3 18.4 26.8 0.4 56.7 54.7 16.5 17.9 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 30.1 29.7 28.5 0.1 52.1 51.5 28.1 29.5 30.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 29.8 29.7 27.3 0.3 55.1 53.6 27.9 29.3 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 30.2 30.2 28.4 0.4 56.5 54.9 28.2 29.7 31.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 29.3 29.5 28.3 0.5 58.3 56.2 27.4 28.8 30.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 30.6 30.7 27.4 0.5 57.6 55.7 28.7 30.1 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 29.7 29.8 28.1 0.5 57.4 55.4 27.6 29.1 30.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 31.1 30.9 29.5 0.2 53.7 52.7 29.3 30.6 31.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 31.3 31.4 28.1 0.5 57.5 55.7 29.4 30.8 32.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 29.2 29.3 29.9 0.5 57.7 54.9 27.2 28.6 30.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 29.0 28.8 26.6 0.3 54.7 53.3 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 29.4 29.3 30.1 0.4 55.4 53.9 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 24.7 24.6 24.3 0.3 55.4 53.2 22.9 24.2 25.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 30.1 29.4 29.2 -0.1 48.3 48.5 28.1 29.5 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 29.7 30.1 30.0 0.8 61.3 57.7 27.6 29.1 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 29.6 29.8 30.2 0.6 58.9 56.6 27.5 29.0 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 29.4 29.3 28.1 0.3 54.5 53.4 27.4 28.9 30.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 30.3 29.4 28.0 -0.2 46.6 47.3 28.2 29.7 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 30.2 30.8 28.3 0.9 64.3 60.8 28.5 29.7 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 29.6 28.8 28.6 -0.2 47.2 47.8 27.5 29.0 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 31.1 30.9 28.8 0.3 53.9 53.0 29.3 30.6 31.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 24.3 24.2 25.5 0.3 54.3 52.8 22.5 23.8 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 27.2 28.9 29.7 -0.1 48.3 48.6 27.5 29.1 30.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------