***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.06.2016.-24.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 27.8 28.0 28.2 -0.7 33.8 36.4 28.0 28.6 29.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 28.8 28.2 28.7 -0.3 44.0 45.1 27.8 28.5 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 27.6 27.9 28.6 -0.6 36.3 38.3 27.7 28.5 29.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 20.7 21.2 26.7 -0.3 42.1 42.8 20.8 21.6 22.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 28.0 28.4 27.0 -0.5 37.1 38.9 28.2 29.0 29.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 27.9 27.5 24.9 -0.1 47.6 47.3 26.9 27.6 28.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 27.5 27.8 28.4 -0.5 37.8 40.1 27.6 28.3 29.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 16.0 16.5 25.1 -0.4 40.2 41.6 16.2 16.8 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 27.5 28.0 27.4 -0.4 39.3 40.3 27.8 28.5 29.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 27.3 27.8 25.8 -0.4 40.1 41.2 27.5 28.3 29.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 28.9 28.3 27.2 -0.3 43.6 44.1 27.7 28.5 29.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 28.0 27.5 26.6 -0.2 45.2 45.4 27.0 27.7 28.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 29.2 28.8 26.4 -0.1 48.1 47.7 28.1 28.9 29.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 28.4 28.1 27.1 0.0 49.1 48.2 27.5 28.2 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 29.8 29.5 28.7 0.0 49.5 48.7 28.8 29.6 30.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 29.9 29.4 26.8 -0.1 46.5 46.4 28.7 29.6 30.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 28.1 28.1 28.8 0.2 54.9 53.4 27.2 27.9 28.5 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 26.5 27.0 25.0 -0.5 39.0 40.3 26.7 27.4 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 28.3 27.9 28.9 -0.1 48.0 48.0 27.3 28.0 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 22.2 22.6 22.7 -0.5 37.4 39.5 22.4 23.1 23.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 27.5 27.9 28.1 -0.7 34.3 36.4 27.8 28.6 29.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 28.6 28.9 29.0 0.6 63.5 59.9 27.7 28.4 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 28.4 28.4 29.1 0.2 55.4 53.4 27.5 28.2 28.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 27.0 27.6 26.9 -0.3 42.1 42.7 27.2 27.9 28.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 27.8 28.0 27.0 -0.6 35.0 37.4 28.0 28.7 29.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 28.8 28.7 26.4 0.1 53.2 51.8 27.9 28.5 29.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 28.4 27.6 27.6 -0.5 36.8 39.1 27.5 28.2 28.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 29.9 29.4 27.5 -0.2 45.3 45.4 28.8 29.6 30.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 21.7 22.2 24.0 -0.5 37.5 39.2 22.0 22.7 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 27.4 27.7 28.5 -0.6 36.8 39.1 27.5 28.2 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------