***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.06.2016.-03.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 20.4 29.8 21.3 187.6 84.2 73.5 6.5 11.3 17.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 14.5 22.2 14.1 131.9 73.4 62.2 7.7 12.4 18.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 19.5 24.8 17.1 157.9 79.0 65.1 6.1 10.7 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 15.6 19.8 17.1 144.2 76.2 64.6 4.2 8.4 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 13.4 18.9 19.7 167.9 80.6 69.6 3.5 6.9 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 13.5 18.8 21.3 170.4 81.1 72.1 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 15.0 18.2 15.8 146.8 76.8 67.5 5.2 8.8 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 33.3 43.9 23.3 161.0 79.9 69.4 9.2 17.2 28.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 15.3 20.6 22.2 169.9 81.0 69.8 4.4 8.0 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 22.0 28.6 23.0 159.3 79.4 68.4 6.3 11.7 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 14.0 20.8 19.2 167.1 80.6 67.7 3.7 7.4 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 17.6 23.4 18.5 155.7 78.6 67.9 5.3 9.7 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 10.0 13.3 18.8 157.6 78.8 69.2 2.8 5.3 8.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 18.0 24.0 17.0 114.5 68.6 55.9 7.4 13.6 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 15.6 23.9 15.0 173.2 81.6 65.2 2.4 5.9 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 11.8 17.3 18.5 166.0 80.4 68.8 2.4 5.4 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 13.7 23.7 14.6 135.1 74.0 61.1 5.6 10.8 18.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 23.8 27.1 22.2 136.7 74.5 64.5 9.3 14.9 22.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 12.5 19.8 14.4 128.5 72.5 59.5 5.7 10.2 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 22.3 31.2 25.2 172.2 82.0 70.9 6.4 11.7 18.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 22.3 31.2 21.4 175.9 82.0 70.1 6.2 11.7 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 17.2 20.5 12.4 107.5 66.0 51.2 8.1 13.6 20.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 14.3 21.7 15.1 127.4 72.3 58.3 6.6 11.6 18.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 19.7 28.6 17.1 122.7 71.1 60.8 9.1 15.8 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 17.4 24.9 22.1 185.5 83.5 74.4 5.6 9.6 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 7.6 13.2 12.1 135.7 74.4 63.1 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 23.5 33.0 22.2 183.8 83.5 74.6 7.5 12.8 19.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 12.6 17.3 18.3 165.4 80.0 67.3 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 33.5 39.5 22.2 145.1 76.5 66.9 9.8 18.0 28.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 45 55 100 20.1 24.6 15.4 142.2 75.7 64.8 7.5 12.5 19.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------