***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.07.2016.-10.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 4.5 17.5 11.9 111.4 68.0 49.5 3.4 8.3 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 5.0 17.6 11.7 128.7 72.7 55.1 4.6 8.7 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.6 18.6 13.1 132.8 72.8 55.0 3.8 8.3 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.4 16.2 11.1 132.6 73.9 55.4 4.0 7.5 12.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.4 16.5 11.1 126.9 72.3 52.9 3.8 7.7 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.8 10.6 11.5 102.6 65.5 49.8 4.0 6.9 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 13.7 19.5 11.6 122.4 70.7 53.2 5.3 10.2 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 18.4 26.6 12.7 135.1 74.4 53.5 9.1 14.8 21.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.8 22.0 12.3 139.8 75.4 52.8 4.3 9.0 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.3 25.4 14.1 137.8 75.0 53.9 5.8 11.2 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.9 13.6 11.3 116.4 68.6 51.2 3.5 7.1 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.8 16.8 10.8 127.7 72.4 52.7 4.2 8.2 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 6.6 9.1 10.9 110.7 68.7 49.0 2.6 4.9 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 5.9 24.1 15.7 128.7 72.5 51.9 5.5 11.1 19.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.2 8.9 9.2 116.6 69.3 48.4 1.9 4.2 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.1 10.2 10.4 110.1 67.8 49.0 4.1 6.6 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.1 8.1 12.7 131.0 73.1 53.1 1.8 3.6 6.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 15.5 23.4 16.5 144.2 76.3 56.9 8.1 12.7 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 5.6 20.1 12.4 134.8 74.2 54.8 5.2 9.5 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 7.6 21.0 14.9 126.4 72.0 52.5 7.5 12.2 18.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.9 20.3 11.9 128.4 72.5 50.4 4.3 9.0 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.1 17.3 13.8 144.5 76.4 54.1 4.7 8.3 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 13.9 21.0 13.4 132.6 73.8 54.1 5.9 10.5 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 6.4 25.4 16.0 151.2 77.6 57.0 5.8 10.8 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 10.3 13.4 13.1 111.8 67.8 49.7 3.8 7.4 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.2 11.5 11.9 140.4 75.3 57.7 2.9 5.3 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 4.1 13.2 13.4 107.9 66.2 50.2 3.4 7.3 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.6 12.2 9.5 122.3 71.3 50.6 2.3 5.3 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.6 28.5 17.4 137.5 74.7 56.9 10.3 16.0 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 5.2 17.4 12.0 128.2 72.4 55.0 5.0 8.9 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------